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25NL Zoom River Question

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  • 25NL Zoom River Question

    I had just started this session and had no hands on the villain. I run HEM and have stats on all the regulars that play in my time slots. This added to the fact that he called oop and was only playing a single table made me think he was of the weaker sort. Question: Would you recommend calling or raising on the river? I was happy with the progression of the hand until the villain woke up and lead out with a small bet on the river. This pattern of passively calling the early streets, then betting/raising on the river is often a tell of a very strong hand. I don't want to give him my stack if he is holding a full house with KQ or JQ. If he is trying to push me out of the pot with a missed flush draw, then it is unlikely that he would call my reraise. Yet, he might call if he has AQ, AK and perhaps AA. So, do I play it safe and just call his river bet minimizing my potential losses. Or, do I reraise for value? All thoughts are welcome Roland GTX

  • #2
    Hi Greg,

    Nice spot. First comment is on the flop, I would recommend breaking from your standard c-bet sizing to bet bigger here, close to full pot. This is a board texture that if it misses the villain (suited connectors, small pairs, ace rag) he's going to likely fold to any bet size, but the parts of his range it hits, it generally hits pretty hard including pair+draw combos and 2 pairs. In other words, I would expect his preflop calling range to be somewhat polarized by this board texture, a lot of it will now be either fairly strong or really weak, and since you have the nuts go for max value against the parts of his range that can continue. This also doesn't give away your hand strength since people don't expect opponents to bet hard with the flopped nuts, and they do expect opponents to bet like this "to protect their hand" with stuff like AK and AA so we can rate to get action and possibly raised by 2 pair+.

    Turn bet sizing is fine, if the Q didn't improve him it devalues all of his remaining range somewhat.

    On the river, this small lead bet just screams blocking bet to me. Something like KT who's straight didn't materialize, and now he wants to get it to showdown without paying $7+ for it. I'm less inclined to expect seeing a bluff (he'd bet bigger or would just give up and check/fold, not even bluffing the river) or a monster (not a great value play, probably more likely to raise the turn, bet the river big, or check/raise all in on the river). I'm thinking medium strength hand that wants to show down as cheaply as possible now that it didn't improve. I'm inclined to raise him for value as I suspect he will begrudgingly call with Kx. A shove is probably too much, but a raise to about $9 should get paid by all his Kx hands and maybe tempting enough to hands like JsTs as well. If he shoves we should probably fold, as I think it would be extremely unlikely he'd bet/3b shove the river without a full house and given the action to that point he's probably expecting us to call a 3b shove about 100% of the time.
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