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i got river-ED

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  • i got river-ED

    villain is an unknow with only 2 hands prior, question is, shud i hv jus shove the turn to prevent villains from getting "priced in" to hit the flush on the river? been getting into similiar stituations recently, n getting sucked out as well on the river
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Don't think I'll shove, it's 2 x pot size. Could discourage draws to call. I probably just bet larger like $3 OTT. If he raised shoved, I think I'll still get it in, given the 10 outs we have against a flopped straight- it's just one of the few combis he can have. This river card is bad, but I think betting all in is superior to check-folding, because we're still ahead of many hands.


    • #3
      Hey wikked, nw! Wikked's got the worst luck This hand kind of reminds me of this HA hand, with the ranging people for flush draws? Although this hand was ranging for a failed one, but the analysis would be the same I guess? Was the villain getting pot odds to call the turn with a flush draw with anything other than JdTd (which already had the straight?) I'm too lazy to double-check Maybe just a sick cooler wikked? Like just one of those days I guess ... me too GL to all of us today at the tables!!! umbup:


      • #4
        I would bet bigger on this board texture on flop and turn, but definitely not shove. You could also consider check/shoving if you feel he is aggressive enough.

        On the river I am strongly considering to x/f. I think that hands like two pair or lower sets would more often raise flop or turn given the boardtexture, so all that is left seems to be a flushdraw. Since you also block most top pair combos I actually feel more and more that checking and folding might be best and shoving for value might be too thin.
        Live Trainer


        • #5
          Ya, it's not so farfetched afterall for somebody to make it all the way to the river with a flush draw on this board, is it?

          For 2 reasons maybe?

          (1) combinations-wise, it was more likely wikked had AK than a set like KK, so against AK even a hand like 8s7s would have been getting the right odds to continue, and

          (2) the A wasn't on the board, so all sorts of Asxs were also getting the right odds to continue against AK (non-nut flush draw), as well as hands like 9sTs.

          Actually even hands like 9T, QJ (non-flush draw) were getting odds to continue on the flop, weren't they?

          This hand's I think interesting, in that a lot of the themes of what makes it so tricky are ones that seem to come up again and again at 5nl zoom, but with slightly different twists each time?

          Like, the villain's unknown, the flop was one of those middling draw-heavy types, and got worse by the river so that wikked's hand was only of middling strength by the river ... and he was playing out of position.

          Then there's that thing of sets being so well-masked, which can sometimes work in our favor, and sometimes maybe work against us in a way perhaps?

          When it comes to the villain's holding ... I guess I kind of thought it was a lot more well-masked as well? Like, TP was less likely due to blockers, but it would have seemed to be the most likely holding to continue. And then, the pot started off bigger than usual because 2/3 of the table decided to see the flop - so maybe there didn't necessarily have to be any additional betting to get all the money in the middle by the river ... although I could see somebody with a lower set being more eager to reraise in case an action-killing card were to come on the river. But I thought maybe a holding like 2pr (which wouldn't seem very common on this board due to the blocker thing again) might prefer to just call, because while it was more likely combinations-wise that wikked had AK, it was also possible for him to be holding all possible sets as well as the straight?

          But even assuming the only likely holding of the villain was the flush draw ... like does this scenario I guess kind of raise that question of optimal bet-sizing ... and whether there even is such a thing?

          Like with top set, which was 2nd nuts on a wet board, oop, in a multi-way pot, are we wanting to prioritize (1) value? (2) protection? (3) pot-control?

          Like wikked bet 2/3 the pot on the flop ...

          1. By making it larger, are we hoping all 3 opponents will continue, or are we wanting to thin the field even though that might sacrifice some value ... possibly a lot of value, with such a strong and well-masked holding? And with 3 others in the pot, do we need to be more concerned than usual about one of them possibly holding JT? Or no?

          2. Might more value be had by betting less, but getting more callers? At the risk of possibly getting outdrawn? Unless people weren't going to fold anyways no matter how large the bet size?

          And then the turn bet was also 2/3 ...

          Are we as worried about protection here now that the hand is heads up, the turn card really didn't improve any draws (except maybe for a hand like JcQc? Is that right? :/), and the chance of the villain hitting his draw are dwindling? Or are we wanting to take advantage of the fact that the villain might think he's against AK rather than KK, and might therefore think he has more outs than he really does? Like do we need to worry about the villain folding if we bet too much? Or do we want that?

          And then on the river - does anybody else worry about checking and giving a floater/bluffer the chance to blow us off the best hand here? Maybe I worry about that too much, since I wind up calling WAAAAYYYYYY too much? lol!

          Guess these are the kind of thoughts that run through my mind as the hand's unfolding in real time with one of these type of hands ... maybe there's more than one way of approaching these sorts of scenarios? I don't know ........
          Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Jan 15, 2013, 01:15 AM.


          • #6
            Hey wikked, Check this out for being river'd umbup:umbup:
            3 Time Bracelet Winner


            • #7
              Originally posted by Bill Curran View Post
              Hey wikked, Check this out for being river'd umbup:umbup:
              ewwwwww... puke
              Bracelet Winner


              • #8

                i guess it's to find the right balance between value n protection? at least i do n struggle many times as in wat course of action to do next.

                i'd probably b betting/raising more on the flop n most likely shoving on the turn in similiar scenarios.

                defo took a note on the villain and can't wait to get me chippies back!!

                n yes sam, ure not the only 1 that's calling waaaaayyyy to much, i'm jus as guilty!!!
                Bracelet Winner


                • #9
                  When villain has a flush draw, he's going to hit it on the next card about 20% of the time. 80% of the time, he is going to miss, so won't be calling any river bets. For this reason, you should bet the most you think he will call on earlier streets. That is to say, if you get lots of value on the flop and turn for the 80% of times your hand holds up, you easily cover your losses when villain sucks out the other 20% of the time.
                  On a wet board like this, I'd bet close to pot on flop and turn to get value from AJ, AT, QJ, QT and/or a flush draw. (Sometimes he'll be slowplaying JT, but we still have outs to a boat/quads).

                  The basic rule of thumb is bet close to pot on wet boards (flush/straight draws), and closer to half pot on dry boards (no obvious draws).
                  Bracelet Winner


                  • #10
                    @wikked Ah haha!! umbup: 6max zoom seems to be a never-ending parade of muppets, clowns, and droolers ... I can't stay away!! So addictive!! GL GL everybody at the tables this year!!!


                    • #11
                      hey arty, thx for the advice! will defo keep it in mind the next time i'm in the same situationumbup: GL GL!
                      Bracelet Winner



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