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25NL Zoom Good Bluff Spot?

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  • 25NL Zoom Good Bluff Spot?

    Villain is a reg, 22/19, AF:6.8 over 343 hands. BTN Stl: 69%(29), F3B: 71%(7), Flop raise Cbet: 33%(6), Flop FCB: 67%(6) Preflop I 3-bet light cos of his high BTN Stl%, hoping he'll fold. Called his flop raise thinking about implied odds. I tanked a long time before calling. I put him 2-pairs KJ or a set JJ to do so, could be on AQ, AT of spades flush draw as well. Turn comes a spade. When he bets <1/2 pot, I had the temptation to shove, hoping to fold better like 2 pairs or a set, if not we still have outs. Of course we'll be dominated by flushes which completed. Another alternative will be to lead 1/2 pot as a bluff, repping the flush, and fold to a raise. Is this a +EV spot to take either one of the actions?

  • #2
    Preflop is somewhat shaky with a hand like that, since you will be in bad spots OOP when villain calls. He does have a reasonably high Fto3Bet, but you are also sitting in the BB getting great odds for an action-closing call which I would prefer more here with that hand.

    As played I think you can safely fold flop since your draw will probably not perform too well against a raising range here. You are dominated by all the flushdraws and combodraws he could be raising here and your implied odds aren't great being OOP on a 2 flush board when you dont draw to the nuts. Also, I dont see too much foldequity working in your favor since I feel that he will also be stacking off with his draws here once he raises.
    Live Trainer



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