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Statistic question for the trainers

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  • Statistic question for the trainers

    I've been looking at my graph about my "Money Won Without Showdown (MWWS)" and my "Currency All-In Adjusted (CAIA)"

    I've noticed that when I don't C-Bet often and I don't try to steal often, my MWWS graph line is always going down, but my CAIA keeps going up.

    So I decided to steal a bit more and C-Bet a little more, but I noticed that my MWWS starts going up, but my CAIA starts going down.

    My profit seems to grow more with the first example.

    So my question to Dave, Gareth or Felix is how does those graph lines compare to yours and should I worry about them?


  • #2
    Can't really say how mine compares Sand, my red line (non-showdown winnings) tends to move consistently upward while my showdown winnings line fluctuates. I don't pay much attention to all in EV because I'm not all in very often, but I will look at it if I have a downswing as a means to help confirm if I'm at least making reasonable EV decisions in my all in pots.

    It's logical there might be a reverse correlation between the 2 though. When you're taking more aggressive lines your non-showdown winnings should increase but when people do get all in with you they'll tend to have stronger hands while you will sometimes be strong and sometimes be caught. When you're taking more passive lines (which can be good to exploit aggro players) you will have lower non-showdown winnings (you'll be folding more marginal hands to aggression and not forcing lots of folds) but will be getting to showdown (and all in) against correspondingly weaker villain holdings... IOW when you're passive you catch them (keep all their bluffs in their range putting money in) and when you're aggressive you take away most of their bluffs and weaker hands. Passive lines can be very effective against hyper aggro players because they bluff too often in general, and you encourage more of that mistake.
    Head Live Trainer
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    4 Time Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Most players have negative non-showdown winnings, whether they c-bet or steal a lot or not, although nittier players will tend to have bigger losses due to the amount of times they fold pre-flop. (All those blinds add up).

      With all-in situations, you ALWAYS reach showdown, so the graph would tend to go up, unless you lost every single time you got it in.
      But don't pay too much attention to the All in EV line. It just measures how lucky you are when all in. (i.e. if your hands hold up well, or if you lose to more suckouts than expected).

      The main line you should worry about it your overall net profit. If that's going up, you're beating about 70% of players. If your green line (net $) is below zero, then comparing the showdown and non-showdown figures could give an indication of a leak (playing too tight/light), but the All in line doesn't reveal anything about your style of play.
      Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Let's say we have a really strong hand that rates to be second best because our opponent has done something even stronger.

        If we call and lose our showdown winnings line goes down and our non showdown winnings hold. Our total winnings go down.

        If we fold, we lose less, our showdown winnings remain the same, non showdown winnings go down (since we already put money into the pot). Total winnings are higher than the first example.

        There are a lot of things that affect these two measurements. There is no easy answer.


        • #5
          I dont usually look at my EV either, I think it may oftentimes be misleading. The adjusted EV stat in a tracking software does not calculate the EV of a decision based on a given opponent's handrange but on the actual hand.

          Regarding nonshowdown and showdown winnings I think it is something so heavily dependant on your playing style, the games you play in and your opponent's tendencies.

          If the majority of your opponents are either loose/passive or just love to bluff you and you have worked your game around this it is natural that your non-SD winnings will go down and your SD winnings will be high since you are either valuebetting heavily or calling down light.

          Vice versa if your opponents are mostly weak/tight and fold too much the majority of our winrate will be made up by taking down uncontested pots which increases your non-SD winnings.

          I have seen a lot of winning players' databases on all kinds of stakes and their non-SD winnings may differ greatly from one another.

          In general however, I think it is safe to say that always looking out for spots to steal and take down pots can not be a bad thing to try and increase your non-SD winnings.

          Hope that helps.
          Live Trainer


          • #6
            trap....forget the stats....just shove atc's but please remember my poker rule #1 but anyways....... trap you always willing to learn is the reason you will go far in this game....something a true winner will doumbup: When you hit the bigtime.....hope the beers are on you..hehe cheers
            Poker Rule #1....Never listen to me...hiccup

            7 Time Bracelet Winner



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