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25NL Zoom: Check-raised on Turn

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  • 25NL Zoom: Check-raised on Turn

    Villian is 43/11 over 19 hands. Should I seriously consider folding to the check-min raise on the turn? I think I'm leaking money calling this river bet; what should I be thinking in this situation? Thanks Carl

  • #2
    Hi carl,

    The turn check raise is generally a sign of real strength, and the min-raise can be a fish tell of a big hand too. So I expect the villain to be strong here most of the time. That does present a bit of a problem for us though because we are pretty strong outselves. Would the villain think a hand like A8 was a monster in this situation and play it like this? If he's fishy, maybe. We don't really know.

    At any rate, I would not fold to this turn action. The min sizing has given us a good price to see the river, 4.5-1. We're in position, it's not totally clear we're behind yet, and we have outs to improve to a nut hand even if we are. At the same time our hand really isn't strong enough to raise again since all legit big hands have us beat, A9, A2, 99, 22, AK/AQ. So I would call and use our position to make a more informed decision on how to proceed after we see the last card and how he reacts.

    On the river I think folding is probably right. The club should give him some element of fear, and worse aces like A8 might well bet small or check to us now. He's not scared though, he's betting and doing so for a sizing that looks like pure value. At the price he's given us we need to be right ~ 30% of the time to make calling him down correct. Will he be either bluffing or value betting worse hands in this manner this often? Probably not. So begrudingly this is probably a fold.
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    • #3
      Dave

      Thanks for the very useful analysis.

      Is my cbet size ok, or a bit too small? Also, how about bet size on the flop?

      I guess it's important to note that a min-raise, particularly from a loose-passive type can mean a strong hand, although it often gives us decent odds to continue if we have legitimate outs. We were getting 4.5-1 to see river, but say he raised 3x or more, at what point is it too costly?

      Thanks

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      • #4
        Bet sizing is fine. At what point we consider folding the turn depends on the stack sizes and the villains range etc, since we do have outs no matter what he's got.
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