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2nl Zoom - QQ OTB, c/r on the river!

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  • 2nl Zoom - QQ OTB, c/r on the river!

    The villain was 3 tabling, I had stats on him but only for 13 hands. Fwiw his stats are 15/8/0 AF 1.0. Pre flop I make my std open for when I'm OTB, the SB calls and the flop comes down A high. I cbet for value and protection and he calls. The turn is a blank and he checks again, at this point I felt that if I continued to fire again I would only get called by better hands. To keep his range as wide as possible I decided to check it back hoping to get value on the river. Was this an okay check back or should I have bet again? The river comes a 9, completing 78, and he checks for a third time. Imo his range when he does this is full of one pair hands, weak aces, Tx and 6x combos. I make a 2/3 pot value bet oping to get called by worse and he raise me fairly small. This bet makes no sense to me, I don't think he can have 2 pair+ here as he surely wouldn't check the river once I checked back the turn. Also if he wanted value from TP why not lead out on the river..? It seems to me he would only do this with a missed diamond draw, so therefore I should call. Is this line of thinking correct or am I missing something? Thanks Oliver
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  • #2
    Hey Oliver Which missed diamond draws do you think he can have, exactly? If you don't mind me asking . The thing is that the ace is on the board, the ten and the nine are not of diamonds, and we have the queen in our hand. That means a few things. First, the most combinatorically likely diamond draw hand, the nut flush draw, is excluded by the board. Second, two middling diamond draws, those involving either a ten or a nine (or both), have showdown value and at these stakes we should assume, would never turn one pair into a river check-raise bluff, or almost never. Third, diamond draws like KQ, QJ, Q7, etc, are not possible because of our hand. So I ask once more, which diamond draws, exactly, do you think he has when he does this? That is the logic you need to inject in this situation when you see the check-raise. It is not enough to say, well diamonds missed, I think missed diamonds make sense given his weird line, I am going to call. Think about how many diamond draws missed, which ones, and which ones he would play this way. Then something plausible to you make become less plausible, or even implausible. So that's the next step for you in this spot. I think we should fold, I think we should also not bet the flop. I don't think it accomplishes anything and I think we benefit a great deal from checking back. Some ideas umbup:

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