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2nl Zoom - AA in the SB. Raised on the flop by unknown. Shove or fold?

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  • 2nl Zoom - AA in the SB. Raised on the flop by unknown. Shove or fold?

    Pre flop I make a std 3bet for value and get called, the flop isn't great but I've seen many worse. I make a half pot bet and then the villain raises HUGE! With so little left behind for him to bet I think this is either a shove or fold. I think he will do this with J9s QQ+ TT and 88 which when pokerstoved give me 35% equity. I'm unsure if he would do this with TP, but if I include AQs in his range the nmy equity goes up to 40%. To call his bet I need 33% equity, however as I said I don't think is a calling spot and I'm unsure how to calculte if I can profitably shove here....? So should I shove or make a disciplined fold? Thanks Oliver
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  • #2
    Hi Oliver, I'd fold here, looks like a set TT or QQ..
    u have any stats on villain?
    Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      No stats at all, it was the first hand I'd played with him. I think he was two tabling but I can't be certain...
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      • #4
        oh well, reckon a fold is the action i'd take here if i were in the same situation..

        wat did u do in the actual hand Oliver?
        Bracelet Winner

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        • #5
          Hi Oliver,

          Without any stats, I'd treat that player as a standard player.
          So QQ+ would have 4bet pre.
          I would put him on: AQ, TT, 88
          There's no reason for me to think of J9 calling a 3bet unless I have a note on the player. Because most opponents would fold J9s to a 3bet. He might also have a hand like QJs (TP + Gutshot) who knows. He might have slow played KK and is now over playing his hand. So we really cannot tell.

          Against AQ, TT, 88 we are even money.

          I'm not too thrilled about it, but I'd shove and take note if he ends up with a J9 or QT or T8

          By the way, I don't like your cbet size. I'd make it atleast 0.27 if not 0.33.

          Let's wait and see what the Trainers have got to say

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          • #6
            Hey Oliver

            In order to calculate what equity we need to profitably get all the monies in we need to treat this as a situation with no fold equity, given our opponent's bet size. That means we can basically say that they moved all-in for their entire stack.

            Then there is 44 + 44 (the pot size, plus our bet and his call) dead in the pot, and we have to call off the remainder of his stack, that is 166-22 = 144.

            So we have 88 in the pot and we have to call 144.

            So let's look at the math now.

            Our break even equity is going to be 144/(288+88) = 38.3%.

            So while we need 33% equity to call his current raise size, we realize that there is more money behind that we should consider effectively all-in, and that this is going to distort, or modify, our all-in equity requirements.

            So this little mathematical lesson has been a nice way off putting off the question of what we should do in this spot. I don't know!

            It seems close to me intuitively. We need to have that KJ in his range. The more the better. We need that AQ in his range, the more the better. When they are there, we are clearly well served going all-in. When they aren't, we're in some trouble, especially since I wouldn't rule out the J9s from his range. QJs and JTs and T9s are also hands worth considering that this villain might like to play fast. His raise size, to me, isn't necessarily scarier than a small raise would be in this situation.

            Therefore I think I go for it and recognize that its a tight spot that might not work out as often as we would hope

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            • #7
              Very good feedback as always Gareth I ended up putting the money in as I felt that he would probably do this with AQ, he rolled over 88. I was kinda surprised he made it so big with bottom set on this board; however in hindsight it kind of makes sense as he was probably scared of the board rolling out bad. Thanks for all the advice and opinions guys Oliver umbup:
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