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25NL 6-max zoom: JTs 3 barrel bluff

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  • 25NL 6-max zoom: JTs 3 barrel bluff

    Hi all, preflop: we open JTs for our standard 3x from UTG and we get called from a 28/20 player with 7.8 3-bet% on the cutoff. flop: we connect pretty well with the flop, having a flush draw and some backdoor str8 draws. therefore we c-bet as a semi-bluff/build the pot in case we hit. turn: we turn an open ended str8 draw to go with our flush and we continue firing for the same reasons stated above. river: we miss everything and we fire the last bullet and we get snapped by TPTK. there goes 50bbs Do you consider such a line +ev in the long run? Given the opponent is probably a thinking player, should we expect him to find a fold with QJs or QTs against our 3 barrells from utg position?

  • #2
    Hi f1n,

    It's a nice line against someone who can find that fold on the river, but it also has to be a good situation for them to have reasons to fold, and this isn't one imo.

    His range when he calls twice is largely top pair type hands, probably QT+. He could have some flush draws as well but is pretty aggressive and may opt to raise those some of the time, where as with top pair just calling make's perfect sense here. A couple things going on here that make it harder for him to find a fold:

    1) top pair on the flop didn't change. If he had AT on a ten high flop, and by the river there was an overcard (or better yet 2) to the ten, it's much harder for him to make what has become just a hero call. Not only could you have been ahead all along, but you could have drawn out. Here you could have been ahead all along, but if he was ahead on the flop, you didn't somehow make a better pair.

    2) All draws missed. The flop draws are clubs and 56. On the turn back door diamonds will barrel as will JT, T8. That's a lot of possible draws that would 2 barrel frequently, and none of them came home. When you're betting a super wet board and everything bricks the river, top pair is much more likely to look you up. Even if they're wary of an overpair, they'll talk themselves into a call because they can beat a busted draw and there's just so many of them busted on this river.
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