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5NL - c/c turn vs a nit

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  • 5NL - c/c turn vs a nit

    Villain is 11/4/1 (99 hands) 0% 3bet (29 hands) How do you like the turn line? and river fold?

  • #2
    Hey Geo

    I like your line and I like your river fold a lot.

    Basically on the turn it is unfortunate that we aren't able to fold given our price and the likelihood we can win the hand on a club, king, or jack. I think therefore then that we should check-call as you did.

    On the river you have correctly dedced that the opponent is not bluffing often enough given their profile and hte board run out, for us to profitably check and call this bet. So good job!

    Now I want to talk about one type of adjustment we can make to this villain type, which is to check the flop from the beginning.

    What I like about this option is that tight players like this are going to often stab once with their misses, AQ comes to mind, when checked to on a flop like this. Then they are going to give up. So we can still make discipline check-folds later with our top pair weak kicker hand (very weak given nits playing KT is more rare than ice cream unmelting on a hot summers day).

    This, apart from inducing one street bluffs/stabs from our opponent, could in fact widen their suspicious calling range with hands like 88 the times the flop checks through and we bet the turn and the river.

    The way the hand played out we weren't that comfortable betting the turn for value and I think for good reason. So that means if we bet flop it is going to be tough to get two streets of value out of someone so tight. If we check the flop though, and we certainly don't fear giving away free cards in this type of situation, then there are going to be times that we get two streets of value without upgrading our hand strength witha fortunate board run out.

    Lots to think about

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