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25NL Zoom Btm Set Line

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  • 25NL Zoom Btm Set Line

    Villain was 27/23, AF:5.3 over 164 hands. Flop cbet: 63% (16), Turn cbet: 50% (6). High BTN Stl: 75% (12). WTSD: 16% (25), W$SD: 75% (4). Fairly loose-aggressive. We flopped the nuts, decided to slowplay. Being OOP sucks, not sure to whether to raise the turn. My plan was to call the turn and lead the river. A 3rd heart appeared, I thought I can extract more value from flushes and bluffs. Took the risk of check-raising here. Looks strong since it's a paired board, but I still think that he'll pay me off with a flush. As planned, we got it all in. However, since he opened UTG and on the river reraises us huge, do you think that there'll be more flushes or boats in his range? I put on Pokerstove his range a mixture of both- KK,99,AhKh,KhQh,KhJh,97s,97o, we're 23% underdog on the river. Based on the calculations, should we have just flat his $2.65 on the river? Or is it better stacking him off as he has LAG stats? I'm really lost... Appreciate your help here.

  • #2
    I think pretty standard getting it in,
    Dont tell me he had KK loool. - i can imagine him having 77 in his pf range.

    My thought process(not much 25nl knowledge btw):
    He opened 2.15x roughly. range him on small pp-JJ, i think AK would raise more to get more value.

    Flop: he cbet standard half pot on dry flop, perhaps betting with all his range ip. definitely thinking about how i can get rest of his money in.

    Turn: he cbet almost 70%, perhaps he still trying to charge us a premium for drawing out on him if he thinks we are on a draw or thinks a K is a good barrelling card.

    -I would like to raise here normally to make sure he is making the mistaking on drawing out on us for a flush or a better Boat. i would raise about 3x seeing as he actually bet quite big, if he is a good player he could actually be thinking we know that this is a good barelling card for his and are just making a move and might come over the top with AK/KQs/66-JJ to see if he is good in the spot. and id be hoping to get it all in on the turn or majority so the spr is right for the river for getting the stacks in.

    River: looks like a crying call bet (looks kinda strong).
    -my instant thought would be, Am i raising for value, and how often am i gonna be beat here?
    -if i think for value, i raise same amount as you about 4x and be happy to get the stacks in, as i think we underplayed out hand and its quite disguised, he could think we for sure have a baby flush in our range here.
    -if im not sure how often he would get it in with a flush on this board or two pairs, i would raise 2.5x and perhaps look him up if he comes over the top if he doesnt make it too big. Cause a Boat is a Boat lol.
    Last edited by behappy621; Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:59 PM.


    • #3
      Hi TANW,

      Really you're lost because you're slow playing a hand that begs to be played fast earlier in the hand. Knock that off.

      Seriously, I would consider donking into him directly on the flop. People just don't expect us to be doing this with trips+, someone who's ranging us is going to usually interpret this as a flush draw, a small pair, or a bluff, and is going to at least float us very often with their air if not raise. They're also not folding any real hand like a pocket pair here. The stack to pot ratio is high, over 22, which means we need more than 3 betting rounds to get all in by the river with reasonable (pot or less) bets. That means we need a raise or a big overbet somewhere. The most likely way this facilitate this is on the flop round when the bets are still small. The most likely way to disguise our hand is to lead into him imo. Check-raising looks strong. Check-calling and getting aggressive later looks really strong.

      So now you've gotten to the river with a big pot hand, in a pot that you've taken a pot control line with the whole way and kept small, less than $7 with $28 behind. It's hard to get stacks in now from hands that aren't flushes or better which gets us lost. Bet the river into him... your line looks a lot like a flush draw and that completes so he's more likely to check back all moderate made hands now. Vs. his small bet I like your check-raise for sure. I'd call off to his shove but I really hate it. The fact that he bet really small on the river may induce him to make a move some of the time as our check-raise doesn't really rep anything well so we are polarizing our range here to monsters or air, which might induce him one in a while to rebluff if he's got a miss as well. Then combos of legit value hands, 3xKK, 3x77, 1xK9s, 97s, 5xK9o (may or may not open all these pre). So 14 combos of boats roughly and flushes AK AQ AJ AT A8 KQ KJ KT QJ QT JT = 11 combos plus probably some smaller suited connected stuff like T8, 86 (may or may not open these). There's the rebluff factor probably good for a couple combos of random stuff, and also the factor that he may not reopen the betting over your check-raise with some of the smaller flushes, making those less likely. Over all I'd guestimate we're good often enough to make calling profitable now given how much is in the pot though, so not folding.
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      • #4
        Heys Denis and Dave, thanks for the lengthy analysis!! Guess this is the consequence of fancy play. Pot controlling till the River before making a big move, and end up wondering if we're still ahead. Dave the rebluff factor was something new, never thought about that before.

        I've gotten paranoid lately after some bad run. Kept on thinking if there're ways to avoid losing my stack. Thus, reviewing and Pokerstoving. This hand Villain flips over 99. Could have worried too much because we'll definitely stacks in at some point. Can't avoid the cooler this time. But leading the flop would have been the better play


        • #5
          i can understand the river check raise and i like it. when he comes over top of u again, why did u shove? you had a bluff catcher . maybe he comes over top again with A9 and calls, but not every1 is a fish like me


          • #6
            Heys kingkong yea I felt sick at that spot too. A9's kind of optimistic. But I hoped to get max value from flushes which got there. Set up this tough spot for myself, should have played it more straightforward on the flop. All in all, think this's a cooler which was unavoidable


            • #7
              I'd fold baby pairs pre OOP


              • #8
                Yup geoVARTA normally would have folded, this hand was in view of the slightly deeper stack size. But easiest way to avoid set over set will still be not to open or call small pairs



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