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Klumn's poker theorem

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  • Klumn's poker theorem

    Klumn’s Zoom poker theorem

    When the pre-flop raiser Cbets for exactly 50% of the pot heads-up; always come over the top for 100% of the new pot but only when your hand has no showdown value.

    The reason for this is the over-use of the Cbet bluff at all levels of play. Couple this with the EXACTLY half pot raise and you increase the chance of success enough to make a +EV play.

    Here comes the maths:
    The least scientific part of the exercise is calculating the chances of getting a fold from this bet. I’ll start with some conservative estimates.

    • 60% he has missed the flop too: fold.
    • 5% he has hit the flop weakly and does not want to play a large pot: fold.

    • 25% he has hit a strong hand: call or re-raise.
    • 2.5% he has flopped a 14 Out plus draw: call or re-raise.
    • 7.5% he calls anyway for no good reason: call or re-raise. (His bluffs are here too)

    It comes down to 65% folds and 35% calls.

    Hand example:
    9max 2NL pre-flop: The first 3 villains fold; villain-4 raises to 6c. Folds to you in the CO and you call with XX. The blinds fold.

    Flop: The pot is 14cafter-rake(for now the flop is un-important). Villain-4 raises 7c making the pot 21c and you come over the top for 21c.

    You are risking 21c with a chance to win 21c. Lets calculate your expectation.

    • 65% of the time you win 21c. 0.65*21c = 13.65c
    • 35% of the time you lose 21c. 0.35*-21c = -7.35c
    • Your expectation is +6.3c per raise

    Times NOT to try it . . .
    1. Wet board
    2. Overly loose villain (he will call more often just for the crack)
    3. Overly tight villain (he doesn’t over-use his Cbet)

    __________________________________________________ ___________

    Ok, Ladies and Gentlemen. Rip this apart!
    Last edited by Klumn; Sat Dec 15, 2012, 12:32 PM.

  • #2
    Nice theory, but observant players (especially those with HUDs) will soon have a note on you that says "Maniac, raises flop with air".
    I have the stat "raises flop %" on my HUD. Anyone that raises more often than 10% has bluffs and one-pair hands in their range. I imagine your strategy would lead to a "raise flop %" of over 50%, which would be insane. I'd love to sit on your table if you played this strategy, as I'd just 3-bet shove over your raises.
    Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Why is this a ZOOM only theorem? Is it because you are playing hands read-less and in a vacuum?

      I like the line anyway.

      Raising the flop is a good strategy, especially when we have air.


      • #4
        They will fold 65% and call or raise 35%????
        I don't think this is going to work either. I bet a NIT raising from UTG and cbetting won't fold 65% of the time.
        So many things to consider.
        What is their range?
        What do they think your range is?
        What type of flop are we doing this on?
        How do they react to re-raises?
        Are they the type of player who will stack off with TPTK?



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