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5NL - river decision with a st8 on a flush board

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  • 5NL - river decision with a st8 on a flush board

    BB is unknown. I open with TJs UTG. My perception of the table is tight and little to no 3betting is going on. I think I should have cbet the flop, but since I don't have any information about BB I figured I would check and bet turn if BB checks to us or give up on a turn lead if we did not improve. Now the turn gives us a st8 and we are facing a donk bet. I raise it to take value from an Ax in his range or a set of 2s or a pair + a draw and to protect my hand from a flush. If he does come back over the top, I think I'm folding. His bet size on the river is pretty small which means we only need to be good 22% of the time to make the call, but it looks like an invitational call with a weak flush holding? But what sorts of hands can he call out of the BB vs UTG here? QcJc, KQc, AJc, etc. What do you think of my flop and turn line? and are we happy calling the river bet?

  • #2
    I prefer a c-bet, as that flop smacks your range and you'll be happy to take it down with jack high.
    The turn raise is good. Villain would almost certainly 3-bet there if he has the flush. His call is more like a pair + gutshot.
    I call the river. Villain will have a pair or 2 pairs quite often. I think he'll show up with a hand like AJ, KJ or QJ quite often.
    Bear in mind that, because you checked the flop, villain might think a pair of aces is good, so he thinks he is value-betting top pair vs a weaker pair.
    Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      i think the river call was the way to go. but nl5 u will get called by 1 pair or 2 pair i am thinking he had the flush or maybe the same hand

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      • #4
        Hey Geo

        I also think you should c-bet the flop. It is a situation where we have two key ingredients: real equity and fold equity. We have real equity versus our opponent's calling range because when he calls with an ace, for example, we have outs to the straight.

        We have fold equity as well, that is to say, when we continuation bet in this situation we think he will likely fold some % of the time. In this instance with hands like small pocket pairs that can't take much heat on an AQX board.

        Finally you raised under the gun. You are going to have a lot of strong hands on this board and you have a tight range. So I think it makes a lot of sense to take advantage of that perception and continuation bet.

        On the river I think we have to call. The bet is laying us a fair price and our opponent certainly doesn't have to have a flush often here.

        One thing that makes having a flush hard is all the high clubs on the board. The ace and the king are already out. So any flush they have has to be a lower flush, which, combinatorically, is hard to have.

        That actually means the river is closer to a raise than a fold. I would still call, for what its worth, but just putting that out there for sake of comparison. So yes, call > raise > fold facing this river lead in my opinion at least!

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