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16NL i think turn plays is bad?how should i play?

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  • 16NL i think turn plays is bad?how should i play?

    Oppo 300 Hs 43/23/1.0 3bet 10%

  • #2
    Just for my clarity: the stats you posted is what exactly? VPIP/PFR/???

    The villain makes a very big bet preflop. Is this his standard? If it's a lot bigger than his standard (say 5.x vs his usual 3.x) I might consider flding here. As it is, he's playing almost half his hands and raising half of them, so it's a decent guess my pocket pair is ahead. My plan is I'd call here to catch a set and give up if I miss.

    Flop is the set. Ka-ching. He makes a c-bet as expected. It's tempting to just call here, but with two hearts I'll be going for a raise. He's not gonna see a free turn here, as two hearts are a good part of his range.

    Just what i didn't wanna see - another heart. Ok, if he has the flush I'm never drawing dead, but still. He leads again. Interesting: the same betsize as his flop bet. At the flop it was a good sizing, here it's downright small. Could be he's trying to lure us in, could be he's trying to bluff us off cheaply. Considering the flus possibility, I'm going for pot control here: call.

    You make a smallish raise (you raise $1.75 into a $6.97 pot, giving him 20% pot odds. He's virtually priced in to call with an open ender here, and certainly with a lone heart.If you do raise him, then you should make it bigger, around $5.

    He makes a 3-bet to $5.44, barely more than a minraise. At this point, it's time to get out of dodge. He's not 3-betting a draw here, and with this board I doubt he's 3-betting a top pair like hand. Maybe a worse set, but could be a better set too. I'm putting him on a made flush here. That gives me 10 outs (about 20%) with pot odds of 19%. Mathwise that's a call. Gut wise, I'm out. Either way, I'm not flatting here. At this point I'm folding or shoving.

    A blank. I'm fully expecting him to bet, and with less than a potsize bet left in your stack, he'd be stupid not to shove. If he bets, I fold. If he checks, I check. After the 3-bet on the turn, he's not calling off with worse if I shove, and he's not folding a flush or set of kings.

    I think you made a mistake with your flat. If you're willing to call off 10 bucks on that board, you should have just moved the last 4 bucks in as well. Your call means you think you have the best hand, so why not try to extract the extra 4 bucks. After he invested almost 18 bucks, it'd be real bad play to fold for the extra $4.65

    AQ of hearts. The made flush.

    Classic case of the Baluga Theorem if you ask me.

    Baluga Theorem:
    If you are heads up and facing a raise on the turn, you should re-evaluate the strength of your hand if you are holding one-pair. This is a nice theorem that will really help with an all too common (and tricky) situation on the turn in Hold'em.

    Granted, you don't have a one pair hand but given the board, I argue that your set is no better than a one-pair hand. He's never 3-betting that board with a one pair hand.

    Hope it helps.

    PS: Wrote this as I was going through the hand, didn't do a sneak peak at the outcome.

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    • #3
      Hi tom,

      Preflop flat is fine. I see no reason not to raise directly on the flop however. There are plenty of worse hands that can give us action, anything containing a K is going to call a raise as well as maybe gutters, and flush draws for sure. Villain is aggro so he may take a bet/3b line with the nut flush draw (fd+over) or combo like QhJh... allowing us to get all in directly on the flop as a solid favorite (we are a 3-1 favorite over AhQh and a 2-1 favorite over QhJh). He may also overvalue AA or AK and bet/3b those as well (90% over AA, 96% over AK). A hand he will amost certainly stack off on the flop is AhKh and we're 70-30 over that.

      When he leads the turn small I too would raise, but I would raise much larger than this. Sometimes this smallish turn lead can be a single heart trying to set a good price for itself to draw. Your raise sizing is still offering him this good price, as now he has to call $1.76 into a pot of $8.73, almost 5-1 on his call is a correct direct price to try and hit a flush card on the river, plus maybe some implied odds on a bet. I would raise him to like $5-$6 here. I like a bit larger sizing because a LAG opponent is more apt to call it on a draw, and if he's got a king in his hand like AhKs or KsQh he'll pay for sure, and then we set up stacks for a river shove on a non-heart river that AK/KQ will probably call off quite a bit.

      As played, his response to your small raise of re-raising small is concerning. He could just call and close the action for a great price yet he's reopening the betting in a way he's never expecting you to fold to. Why? I think I would just call this action and see how the river unfolds like you did.

      Really not liking his river bet but given that we just called the small reraise I think he can show up with a hand like KsQh or AhAd often enough that I'd call here too with a set. I know his line would not be good with those holdings but bad players do things that make no sense all the time, so I don't think we can rule those out.
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