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+EV move or not?

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  • +EV move or not?

    microstakes cash game (as usual

    I have Ah Qh in the BB with 108 BB stack. The SB has a 100 BB stack and raises to 3BB. I raise to 7BB, he raises to 18 and I call.

    thoughts: perhaps in hindsight calling the 4 bet with the suited ace wasn't the best move.

    Flop: Kd Jh 4h

    The guy bets a little under half pot, less than his preflop 4bet, and s I shove allin.

    thoughts: I have two draws to the nuts: the 10 would give me the straight, and if the 10 happns to complete a flush, it would be my nut flush. That gives me 12 outs, plus a small chance my AQ is good if I hit an A or Q, and the small chance he folds to the shove.

    Was my shove here correct?
    The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
    Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight



  • #2
    Hi Ov3rsight.

    In my opinion a 5Bet shove by you with AQs is pretty risky, as if you get called you are almost never better than a race versus most opponents even at the micro stakes.

    Also in my opinion a flat of the 4bet is quite risky because your opponent should nearly ALWAYS be c betting strongly on the flop, and about 2/3rds of the time you will air ball and be forced to fold 18BB. Still, if he is C betting TOO often, and if he also has quite a wide range t o 4bet pre in the first place, a flat CAN be conceivable for you.

    So in large part your pre flop decisions are your most critical: you can either fold a pretty cheap 7BB or place yourself in a pretty high risk/high reward spot.

    On the flop, my opinion is your shove is fine.

    The SPR going to the flop was about 2.2, so it was quite low. While this does not bode well for the opp folding even marginal value here (like QQ, or KQ), he should fold these sorts of hands sometimes, and it does leave enough in his stack that you can get some other "better" hands than your AQs to fold now (like TT/AK) with a shove.

    If your shove gets called you are quite likely to be getting the price your big draw needs to see versus most holdings of your opp. Were you to flat his C bet however, the pot merely grows and you could easily face a turn blank and a bet you cannot continue to draw on.

    About the only time I can conceive of flatting this small flop bet is if the opp has shown a pattern of making weak turn bets on continuation here with his monsters (like a set of Ks or Js). If he frequently gives free/cheap cards in spots that are not good for it, then I might think of flatting here and paying another small price to see the river, but other than that I think I am immediately raising, and committing to, my draw.
    Last edited by JDean; Sun Dec 09, 2012, 12:33 AM.
    Double Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      Hey Oversight

      I think this is a pretty perfectly played hand.

      Preflop is probably our best option. I am not in favour of flat calling four-bets in general but if I am going to I would prefer it be 1) for less than 20% of effective stacks 2) with a strong hand 3) with position 4) in a situation where our opponent can have some, or even many, bluffs.

      Guess we are 4 out of 4.

      On the flop we just have such a strong hand that plays best as a shove, using maximum fold equity and ensuring we get the money in with a high amount of real equity. Sometimes he will fold and we profit, sometimes he will call with better and we will get there, for big profit, and sometimes we will be called and lose, and I think that when we add these three scenarios together it will end up in the +EV camp for us.

      So don't take this as ann endorsement of calling four-bets, especially out of position, especially for 20bb or more, especially against a position open other than the small blind. All the factors added up in this case that calling the four bet made sense; most often it does not.

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