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5nl Zoom - JTs. Raised on the river, can I call?

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  • 5nl Zoom - JTs. Raised on the river, can I call?

    I didn't have any reads on the villain in this hand and only had 12 hands on the player. Pretty insignificant but for the 12 hands he appeared to be playing quite loose 42/33/0 AF 1.0
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    Pre flop I raise in the CO off to 3x and the SB calls, I flop an open ender with backdoor hearts. The SB checks to me and this seems a really good spot to fire a cbet, I have a bunch of cards that I can double barrel the turn on and I may even garner a fold now. I make a bet of 2/3 pot and the SB calls, at this point his range can still be very wide as he likely calls with any pair, diamond draw, straight draw, sets and 2 pair. The turn is a heart which is a great card for me as I pick up a tonne of equity. I can happily fire the second barrel on this card and when he checks I proceed to do so, making a bet of around half pot. He calls again and now I think his range is slightly stronger as he may fold straight/flush draws and weak one pair hands but continue with the rest. The river is an amazing card, I make my flush and he continues to check. The train has just pulled into value town and I decide to make the bet $1 as I think I can get called by a wide array of worse hands. He then surprises me a shoves! Given how he's played the rest of the hand he seems pretty passive so I don't think he's ever making this bet as a bluff. However I'm having trouble defining his value range, I think he can definitely show up with A9/A4 of hearts here but could he also do this with sets or two pair that he's overvaluing? He's laying me a pretty good price and I only have to be right around 1 in 3 times here... can I make the call? Thanks for any help Oliverumbup:
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  • #2
    Hey Oliver

    I think first point would be that I would size the turn a little bigger. We really want to put pressure on his made hands worse than 9x and strengthening his turn calling range (thereby folding more weak hands) is going to be in our favour since we can then value bet more effectively when one of our draws hit.

    There aren't too many times that calling a river check-shove for a substantial raise without the nuts is clear, but I would say this is one of thobse times. He can definitely have worse flushes for value, first of all. Those include 98hh, 96hh, 45hh, 43hh. Second, the number of better flushes is pretty limited, probably to K9hh, A9hh, A4hh, and AKhh.

    We might be in a bigger quandary if the Qh was the Qd on board because then both his flop calling range has more higher hh combinations in it and there are more better hh combos combinatorically possible in general.

    Finally we cannot exclude the possibility of him doing this with hands like QQ/99. If we had turned a frontdoor flush or rivered a frontdoor flush I think we should treat our hand's relative strength differently. Backdoor flushes really are a cut above though and should be valued highly, like a blue ribbon hog at the county fair. So, I would not fold. I think we can turn a solid profit calling the check-shove even though we are beaten sometimes. And if he does check-shove QQ or 45hh, for what its worth, I think that's probably a good play for him to make.



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