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5nl Zoom - KQs in the BB vs UTG reg.

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  • 5nl Zoom - KQs in the BB vs UTG reg.

    The UTG villin is a 4 tabling reg, I have no reads but the stats I have on them suggest they are tight. 19/15/0 AF 1.5 I have no reads on the SB but I assumed them to be a weak player as of the stack size, also they were single tabling.
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    Preflop I think is pretty standard, the weaker player has called and I'm getting pretty good odds to call. I flop second pair and the SB checks to me, I see no reason to bet here as I will only get calls from the UTG when he has a better hand also if I have no problem with it checking through. I check and UTG bets just shy of 2/3 pot, the SB folds and I need 27% equity to call, I think he can definitely bet some worse hands here as well as better ones but I have a number of good cards that can hit the turn. I think his flop betting range looks something like this...QQ+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo. I pokerstoved this and I have nearly 28% equity, so enough to call. How does this range look to everyone, do you think he would bet QQ here? I make the call and the 7d peels on the turn, like on the flop I have no problem with it checking through and I don't think I can get called by worse so I decide to check. He bets again around 2/3 pot and I have to have 28% equity to call. I think his betting range is much tighter here, however I have the flushdraw now so I feel I can make the call. Against a range of KK+,ATs+,AJo+,KQo I have bang on 28% equity, again does this range look okay? The river bricks for me and I check again hoping to get to showdown, he bets really small and this looks so 'valuey'. this seems a fold now as I don't think I can beat any of his value betting range on the river. Sorry if this is a really simple spot just seems like I'm losing lots of small-medium pots from being a bit stationy recently so thought I would post this. Thanks for any help Oliver umbup:
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  • #2
    Hey Oliver I don't think you can use the 28% in PokerStove to figure out if you should check-call that effectively. We are a ways from seeing showdown or getting to realize our equity. I think QQ is probably the single most likely hand for our opponent to check back, at least, QQ and KX. These hands really don't make much sense to bet from our opponent's perspective and I don't think they do. This is because those hands get worst to fold and better (mostly) to call. Anyways so I think the flop check-call is marginal but necessary. We have second pair with good backdoors, but our opponent's UTG range includes a lot of top pair as a total of his range. What we are counting on is our ability to sometimes improve and his willingness to c-bet small pocket pairs and the gutshot hands like JT/QJ/QT. So once we have check-called the flop I think we have to check-call the turn. This is not so much because we think we are getting the right immediate odds. We probably aren't since his range is probably very AX heavy and includes some even stronger hands. But drawing to a flush now gives us high implied odds versus his double barrel range and at these stakes I expect to be able to get the money in with a high degree of profitability on the flush card. Finally the river is a good spot to check-fold. Players don't bluff A high boards three times at these stakes. It might be that simple. But if we think about the range with which he double barrels, then it makes sense for us to not be able to check-call a tripe unimproved. umbup:



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