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10NL 6 Max 3Bet-Pot Baluga?

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  • 10NL 6 Max 3Bet-Pot Baluga?

    Villain was 29/24, AF: 1.9, profit of $15 over 2k hands. Regular, 24tabling. 3bet: 9.1%, F3B: 60% (67) Flop fold to cbet (3bet pot): 50% (18) Flop raise cbet (3bet pot): 40% (15) Turn fold to cbet (3bet pot): No info Seen him went all in Preflop with AKo, QQ and T9s before Flop SPR was 6.5, don't know if it's profitable to be stacking him off with an overpair. On the turn we get minraised, we still got another $8 left, not the typical "not much left let's get it all in" spot. Is it fair to range him as QQ-88, 44-33, ATs, ATo? In this case, we'll be 67% favourite to win. So is going all in here the right move? Pls let me know if you need additional stats on Villain. Thanks!
    Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Sat Dec 01, 2012, 02:39 PM.

  • #2
    Preflop looks to be pretty standard. Nice 3-bet, one caller.

    Flop is nice. He checks as expected, you c-bet, he calls.

    Turn is a blank, he checks again, you bet and he raises.

    Hmm. I'v little experience at the 10NL level, but at my level they're never bluffing here. So he has something. If we call here, he'll most likely shove the river. That means this is imho indeed the correct time to decide on whether or not to play for our stack. Any chance the guy could be doing this with the flush or straight draw or something like pocket 9, J or Q? If so, shove it. The only hands that beat you right now are a set. Yes he could have it, yes Baluga applies, but I'm pretty much shoving my kings here any time.
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    • #3
      Hi TANW,

      This hand is a nice reminder towards the lesson of having a plan for your hand. The question of how we should respond to a turn check raise is one to ask before making the bet! If the answer is easy fold, or easy call/get it in, then go ahead and bet. If the answer is I'm not sure, then rethink betting again.

      So what's the villains range at the point he calls the flop c-bet? Probably a lot of the range you stated, maybe some worse Tx hands as well, and some KK-AA combos that he played tricky preflop sometimes. The hands that are worse than ours out of this range... Tx, 99, JJ, and other small pairs not making a set... how many streets of value can we expect a 24 tabling reg to give us with these medium strength hands? I think the answer is a max of 2. When we think our max streets of value is 2 in a situation, they don't have the be the flop and turn, they can be the flop and river, or turn and river. This is where having a plan for our hand from the beginning becomes so important. I think it makes a lot of sense to check behind on the turn here to maximize value. This villain is likely to fold the worse parts of his range (underpairs to the ten and even Tx) to a turn barrel, giving us only 1 street out of those hands. JJ/QQ probably calls but may well not call a 3rd barrel. However, all those hands will generally give us a river call if we check behind, as we create doubt about our holding (looks like we missed with AK). So a hand like 77 that will call once on the flop and check/fold the turn, now is feeling inclined to make a sheriff call on the river if it's not an ace, king, or queen to pick off a bluff, or make a value bet of it's own to get looked up by AK high. So since we can expect only 2 streets of value realistically from worse, we get max value by checking behind either the flop or turn and planting that seed of AK doubt. And we open up the door for any bluffs he may like to try, like if he peels the flop once with just overs, then decides to bluff the river to get us off AK. And at the same time, we save ourselves a big decision when we get check-raised on the turn, and limit our expense when he's gotten lucky and flopped a set or played AA unconventionally.
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      • #4
        BTW the range assessment is not accurate, it was fine for his flop calling range but not at the turn decision point... he is never taking this line with 99 or just a ten, and may be savvy enough to know that JJ is basically the same as AT here. He's check-calling or check-folding all the weaker parts of his range.

        I think we are losing a ton here to a set or a tricky AA. We're beating QQ. That's about it. If we think he might have some bluffs or spazzes in his range then committing is fine, but that doesn't mean we have to just shove it in. I think if this is the case it's probably better to simply call his check-raise planning to call his river shove. This keeps all bluffs/spazzes in (he'll fold all these to a shove and we lose all the potential river value from not allowing him to continue bluffing/spazzing... that's value we need to make continuing profitable since the rest of the time we're simply stacking off to his better hands). I don't really think committing here is great, but if we feel like we should it can only be because we think he's going to turn medium strength hands into a bluff and spazz out enough to offset all the AA and sets we'll get shown, and in that case shoving all in is not the best way to commit, since it shuts off all his bluffs and spazzes.

        Edit: If he is prone to overvaluing top pair/top kicker type hands then getting it in here is fine, and although that is sort of in the "spazz" category it would change my action... that would mean a lot of his worse hands are now not total bluffs, most of them are big tens and JJ that he's overvaluing... in which case the way to optimally commit imo is to shove over his check-raise... if he overvalues these hand strengths he's likely calling the shove now, but a scary river card may shut him down, so on balance I think if this is the case we maximize value by getting AT etc in immediately.
        Last edited by TheLangolier; Sat Dec 01, 2012, 06:20 PM.
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        • #5
          Heys Dave thanks for the detailed reply! Long but a definite must read post

          I like the point about planning the hand ahead. That's some in depth thinking about gaining maximal value from just 2 streets because he's a 24-tabling regular, and we should allow him to bluff. Checking on the turn creates deception and accomplishes that.

          Part of the reason why I shoved this hand was that he seemed fishy due to his stats, saw him go all in preflop with T9s in the past. And only +$15 after 2k hands. I'm not sure if we should take all these into consideration whether he overvalues 1-pair type hands like the last point you mentioned.

          At showdown, he flips over 88. So definitely you were right that firing a second barrel would have shut him off if he missed. In this case by checking behind, we would have saved some $$.

          Perhaps he was thinking about set-mining and floating. Man, I don't know if I should label him green...



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