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10NL 6 Max Set on Coordinated board

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  • 10NL 6 Max Set on Coordinated board

    Villain: 35/22 over 55 hands, AF:2.7, F3B: 33% (3) Only note on him was once he called 3bet, called 2 barrels all in with 44 as bottom pair on a dry board, lost to overpair AA. Preflop: Called in position which I think was a bit loose, but could play post-flop with him. There're implied odds if we hit a set given his calling station tendency. 3-betting him with 33 might not be best as as we'll be playing a big pot with a weak holding. Flop: Fastplay on draw heavy board hence I raised for value, hoping any overpair or draws will call. Turn: Villain led for 1/3 pot. At this point, I think if we put him on A6, 76, 86, 87, 65, 77+, A4, 54, 64, 42, we could still be a fair bit of the time. Hence I made the call. River: Worst card of all. Would have completed 76 and 87. Highly possible he held those hands but I think combinatorically those are just a small portion of hands he cold have. Decided to make the call. 1) On the turn, I thought of raising for value from draws and overpairs. Can this be a raise spot? Or are we value-owning ourselves? 2) Is the river call ok?

  • #2
    Hi TANW,

    I definitely like calling in position to set mine here, I think it's far superior to folding or 3-betting against this villain.

    For sure raising the flop, perfect. I like the sizing too.

    On the turn I would probably raise again. Obviously he could have a 4, but I don't think we're value owning ourselves because this guy will call with many worse hands despite the presence of a 4-straight on board. As described, I'd expect him to call as weak as 1 pair hands here, so I'm inclinded to raise for value and if he's got a 4, we still have 10 outs to improve to winner plush maybe catch a 4 to chop.

    River I would call the guy, obviously we can only chop or lose as we're playing the board, so 3.10 to win 2.80 (half the pot), will we be chopping more than half the time here? Probably against this type of villain. Maybe it's close. Folding isn't bad either though, when it's close then there's not a big EV difference in either course of action over thousands of trials. I think the most interesting part of this hand is the turn and whether or not we should raise. This type of villain I would go for it personally.
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    • #3
      Thanks Dave. I just wasn't sure if villain will shove on the turn if I raise, then I'll have a tough decision whether to call as there's not much left behind. But definitely it's better to raise for value like you said, he could call with many worse hands.

      So he held 85o, "top pair", almost stabbed myself for not raising the turn lol.

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