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10NL 6 Max Decent River Bet

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  • 10NL 6 Max Decent River Bet

    Villain was nitty, 13/9 after a small sample of 50 hands. Flop fold to cbet: 0% (1) Flop: I cbet for value from medium pocket pairs like 88+ he could hold. Turn: I wasn't glad he called the flop but the second 4 saved us, giving us 2 pairs top kicker. I checked as I didn't want to fold out pocket pairs. Only an Ace would probably continue here. Turned out he BVMCB, likely he held an Ace. I couldn't fold 2 pairs TK so I called. River: Had planned to check/call the river as we'll be splitting pot against another Ace, and if we're optimistic, he could do so with a bluff. But this river bet felt pretty strong. Decided to use Pokerstove, couldn't discount him holding AK (although he would have 3bet pre-flop). And I included ATo (unlikely he called preflop with) Didn't put him on 44 or TT. Against { ATs+, ATo+ }, we have 29% to tie, he had 42% to win. Against only AJ and AQ, we're splitting the pot. So was calling the river the right decision?
    Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Tue Nov 20, 2012, 05:48 AM.

  • #2
    Hey TheAwesomeNW

    This was a tough spot! I'm rather nitty, that's why I stick to fr, but here's my two cents.

    When he took the initiative on the turn, I'm getting a bit concerned. But, yes, I like your call since him holdng an A seems reasonable. When he makes a big bet on the river, I'm asking myself "What hands could we be beating in this spot?" We are tying with quite a few and losing to some more, but are we ahead of any against a nit? I would have folded.

    Curious how others would have played


    Roland GTX


    • #3
      Thanks Greg! On the river, I'm definitely not ahead of any cards. Looking back, I think he would have taken the same line (betting the river) with AK, AT, just as he would with AQ, AJ. Was just thinking if calling $2.50 for a split pot was reasonable


      • #4
        Tough spot!

        I think the turn is an interesting spot, his bet size indicates either value or he is seeing if his A is good,

        Im just wondering if he 3bet AK pf, for his nitty stats im not sure, but these nits also like to make plays, and i love the K out there because if he has AQ AJ Ax... your drawing so could be profitable to call on river,
        however his bet sizing on the river is rather big, which i think he may have you beat and is going for straight up value town or he knows he has a super tight image and can get away with another bullet on the river(i.e. not wanting a chop)

        hmmm i think i fold as well just because i do not want to spend another $2.50 to find out hahahaha.


        • #5

          Well, I'll start at the river. I think this is a fairly clear fold imo. We are calling basically to chop, so $2.50 to win $1.64. I don't really see him having any bluffs here so we are hoping he's going for value with AQ/AJ and we chop. We lose of course to AK, AT, KK, 44, all of which are possible to some extend. When we have a hand strength that is basically only a bluff catcher, we need the villain to be able to bluff, but it just doesn't make sense that there would be any bluffs in his range here. If he had a king I suspect he would check it down after getting called on the turn. I don't think he's calling the flop with worse.

          Also I personally would probably check this flop more often than not. I assume when we raised it up with A2 it was to attack someone in the blinds or attack tight players, and getting flatted by a 13/9 guy who has position on us was not part of the plan. We don't play well against his calling range but the flop does pull us ahead of some of it. The problem is on this board texture it's really hard to get called by worse against a nit. You said you bet to get value from pocket pairs, but those hands have to be able to call and I don't think a nit is calling us with 88 on a dry AK4 board. About the only worse hands that might call us on the flop here are big kings like KQ, hoping we have the pocket pair and will shut down when called. If we bet the flop however we are likely only getting 1 street of value from KQ out of this villain. If we check the flop, it creates doubt that we have an ace and we might get turn AND river value from KQ, while avoiding giving 3 streets to bigger aces etc.

          As played I think calling the turn is reasonable... our line includes a lot of pocket pairs below the king so he could still bet KQ which we beat or Ax which we tie. But when we call I think it's just very very likely he checks most of this down, particularly the KQ type hands which lose to weak aces, so when he bets again we are almost always chopping or losing.
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          • #6
            Personally, that's a pre flop fold, A-rag

            I understand wanting to steal a blind, but that's trying to bluff 3 players. Even if you catch an A, you only have a small kicker.

            I agree with Dave on the turn and river


            • #7
              Insightful comments guys Yes I think the PFR was loose, thought it would be an easy steal which didn't turn out well. I agree that flop should have been a check since his range includes better Aces, bad play on my part. Missed out the fact that on the river we're calling $2.50 for only $1.64 and not the entire pot. It's more rational to fold based on that.

              I actually made the call, turns out his river is stronger than expected. He held QdJd. Perhaps he thinks I'm cbetting light thus the float. On the turn he bet with 12 outs and rivered it, hence the large value bet. The bet sizing really tells it all Checking the flop could have minimised our loss.



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