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5NL 6max zoom: Set against horrible river

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  • 5NL 6max zoom: Set against horrible river

    I have no idea what to do in this spot, if i check here do hands like AJ take a stab and try put me off the hand. And if i bet will anything worse call. How can I get this to showdown profitably.

  • #2
    Hey Craig

    I like how this title indicates you are battling against the river card in this hand, not the opponent .

    So actually, I think we are playing our opponent, and not the river card. As a consequence let's think what they will do with parts of their range should we bet or check.

    Let's say we move all-in.

    With straights they will call. With sets they might call, but often they will have raised an earlier street. With two pair they can call as well, but the same logic applies. The fact is that a) they are going to fold all hands worse than two pair most often, when they call it will be unusual and usually a result of some sort of tilt, in the broad sense b) they could call with two pairs or sets, but will often have raised those hands earlier, and remember, we take two jacks out of the deck c) they will always call with a queen.

    I think that leaves betting 1/4 pot and checking.

    I think if we bet 1/4 pot we have to fold to a shove. Our opponent can definitely have QX type hands. He is also really unlikely to bluff raise this board when we show aggression at every opportunity.

    To me it is between this option and check-folding. The reason for check-folding is that actually, our opponent is extremely unlikely to bet AJ. What incentive do they have to bet AJ on the river when they could check back and see a free showdown? They don't know you have a better hand than they do, and in fact, should you check the river, probably think their hand rates to be best often on the river.

    I think the same goes for two pair or better and most one pairs. They also can't have too many missed draws otherwise, especially compared to all the QX they can hold. So I would expect their betting range to be all better should we check.

    I think check-folding is going to be our best route.

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