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Dropping Overpair

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  • Dropping Overpair

    Fairly crazy hand, villain 2 was LP, villain 3 had only been at the table a few hands but had shown himself to be absolutely insane, calling with any two cards any raise even when he had near enough 0% equity pre and post flop (although inexplicably he became a nit after this hand). In the past I would have had great trouble dropping this, but my immediate thought was two pair / set for villain three, and I had no idea if villain 2 had hit or had a strong draw. Should I have called?

  • #2
    I don't like the fold tbh. There's $1.93 in the pot going to the turn, and you only have $1.42 left. Villain 3 check/calls flop and donks the turn into you... for this price he has to have us beat a pretty large % of the time to make folding correct. Does he? I think it's pretty hard to think that when the read we have on him involves the words "absolutely insane" He could be ahead of course, but I think he shows up with plenty of worse 1 pair hands, draws, and of course there's always some air in an insane's range like he actually had here. V2 if they flopped a set and are slowplaying it then that's a risk we have to take imo for a large pot in which we rate to still be ahead more often than not.

    My commitment decision on this flop with a low stack to pot ratio is to be willing to get all in vs. V2 and/or V3 on this board, and neither the action sequence nor the turn card should change that imo.
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