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100NL Zoom FR facing ai rr on river

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  • 100NL Zoom FR facing ai rr on river

    100NL Zoom FR: Was calling on the river in this hand standard, or did I just get very lucky?

    http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...584_502F57A2D2

    This hand started out as a standard steal raise. The bb is a Platinum star running 15/13 over the 20 hands I have on him. Preflop and the flop seemed standard. I put him on a drawing hand perhaps with an A. I got nervous on the turn that he might have pocket 8s, or Qs for that matter, but still thought a drawing hand seemed most likely. The river killed any flush draws. I thought it still most likely that I was ahead and lead out only to get a huge all in reraise in my face.

    I read this as a missed draw and that they wanted me to fold, but at this level I wasn't so sure of my read.

    Thnaks
    Roland GTX

  • #2
    Hi Roland,

    I don't read this as a miss at all, this looks like straight value to me by the villain when he raises the turn. What's tricky here about the spot is that 1) blind v blind the villain may consider trip T's strong enough to stack off, and we beat some of those, and 2) your really small river blocking bet isn't going to ward off a raise from any of his value range on a paired board... in fact it probably looks like KQ/AQ trying to get to showdown cheaply. So if I'm sitting in the villains shoes with, say, JT... I would probably respond to this river bet by shoving as well and giving you a chance to make a big mistake with AQ.

    So does he have enough worse trips in his range? Probably not my gut says, but let's count value combos. Hands we beat, JT and T9, there are 4 combos of each so that's 8 we're beating. 20 hands of data is very small but he's been tight so not sure if he defends with worse tens. Let's give him T7s, so that's one more combo, and no other worse tens. That's 9 hands we beat. Hands beating us:

    T8 - 3 combos
    TQ - 3 combos
    AT - 4 combos
    J9 - 16 combos
    Total - 26 combos

    So against that range we are a 26-9 dog. We have to call 63 into 136 so getting about 2-1 as roughly a 3-1 dog vs his perceived value range.

    In other words, to make this a call he has to also be taking this line with some bluffs and/or worse made hands like a tricky AA/KK or a somewhat overvalued AQ.

    Probably just a fold vs. a tighter player tbh. But I really am not a fan of the small river lead as it can make us feel like we're inducing light shoves, and maybe sometimes we are. I think I'm not thrilled about getting raised on the turn (that is usually real strength) but if we feel he might be semi-bluffing here then maybe check-call more often on the river or bet small/call to induce a bluff. I just think check/calling is better usually in this spot because if he's value raising the turn he's firing again, and if he's making a move, you gain more equity from it by letting him bluff off the blank river.
    Head Live Trainer
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    • #3
      I am a bit confused by the analysis on this one. The villain does not have a 10 in his hand, he has KJs so I do not understand how his re-raise on the turn is a bet for value. Is he betting an open ender for value?

      As pointed out 20 hands is a small sample and I would find it difficult to throw away my trips against this raise on the turn.

      The all in on the river to the small river lead puts you in a real spot and maybe here you would have pause for thought, but you kept to your read and he turned a busted draw.

      Great hand for analysis but Dave's train of thought on this one has me a little flummoxed. Perhaps he could explain it further.

      Cheers,

      TC

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      • #4
        Hi top

        Sure, happy to. At the decision point we don't know what the villain has. Once we see his had after the fact at showdown, it's clear he wasn't raising for value (he has king high), he was semi-bluffing the turn and setting up a big river bluff if he missed. Now that we know the villain is capable of this play (something you see more of as you move up), we should note it and in the future would be making this call:

        Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
        In other words, to make this a call he has to also be taking this line with some bluffs and/or worse made hands like a tricky AA/KK or a somewhat overvalued AQ.
        He was taking this line as a semi-bluff turn/bluff river. While you'll see this type of thing more often at 100NL than 2NL, I don't assume everyone is capable of it until I see them do it.

        Hope this helps.
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        • #5
          Hey Dave,

          Thanks for the clarification. I suppose there is the possibility of a player even changing gears at this level dependent on the perceived image of his opponent, so sometimes it could be a cold stone bluff and other times he could have the goods.

          Cheers,

          TC

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          • #6
            I don't often play at the 100nl level and was probably viewed as easy pickings. In blind vs blind confrontations I always assume the villian may be bluffing, AND that they believe I may be bluffing. The turn made me nervous, but his river bet just seemed too big to be for value. I paused for a good 30 seconds before clicking the call button. Nonetheless, I am rather uneasy that my reads differ so often and so much from Dave's. I am pretty new to ring games.

            Roland GTX

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            • #7
              Hey Roland,

              You've only got 20 hands of history so he shouldn't really have much of any read on you yet. The easy pickings is more in your head, which I've always thought was a natural kind of feeling to have when moving up and have experienced it myself to an extent. This shove will be for value more often higher up, since your small lead bet induces it and you'll be tempted to call with a decent showdown value hand like a Q. The strongest players will be doing this usually for value but occasionally with bluffs which makes them very hard to play against.
              Head Live Trainer
              Check out my Videos

              4 Time Bracelet Winner



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