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5nl 6-max Zoom AKo in the SB against a Reg on the Button

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  • 5nl 6-max Zoom AKo in the SB against a Reg on the Button

    Found myself up against another 4-tabling reg ... this one was borderline nitty. HUD Stats and NoteTracker: [T] Played turn draw aggressively (1) NoteTracker Note So, this person had the same note as the regs from the JJ hand I submitted (about playing turn draws agressively - it's the note I tried relying on, and they didn't raise ... not sure if the note is too general (in that they only play draws aggressively under circumstances), or if they didn't have draws? So I'm not sure how reliable that stat is? Turn C-Bet Stat Is it ... kind of unusual to have almost 150 hands on a person and no turn cbet stat? Does that (along with maybe some other stats like WTSD, W$SD) mean they fold a lot on the flop and only continue with strong holdings? 4bet Stat I just added this stat and don't know what's average, but this seemed kind of high - combined with like VPIP, does this also indicate that they're only continuing with strong holdings? Steal Stats These also seemed on the lower range? On the other hand, there was ... Fold to 3-bet Is this a little on the tight side? And ... Flop c-bet Also kind of low? I've been 3betting AK from the blinds, but I don't know why ... I guess maybe I was worried this person might not fold to a 3bet? And I didn't want to play in a 3bet pot out of position? So that was a first - for me to just call with a hand so strong. Guess I thought with their low flop cbet, maybe it might be better to just call, I don't know? And then I flopped TP, but it wasn't a great board: So I forgot to do the bet-fold thing on the river (forgot the bet, forgot the fold ... still working on that - eep! ) But I guess I was wondering if I should have done that as early as the flop? Or the turn? I guess by checking, I was hoping I'd be able to rule out QJ based whether or not the button cbet? And also the size? But then they cbet, and ... something just felt like maybe they had it? And then I didn't know what to do on the turn ... Any advice would be greatly appreciated - thx!!
    Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Oct 27, 2012, 06:00 AM.

  • #2
    Hey TrustySam

    I think this player isn't borderline nitty -- I think he is a nit!

    One thing that's pretty nitty about him is how few hands he opens on the button, only 29%.

    It is not that unusual to not have seen a turn c-bet at this point. Let me direct your attention to another stat this opponent has in his HUD -- W$SD% = 60%.

    This means that at showdown he is winning 60% of the time. This is a really high number. This means that he doesn't bluff on the river very often -- if at all. And that when he makes bets he means them -- he has strong hands when he takes strong lines.

    I think not three-betting preflop was ok here -- it could go either way. Once we flop this way I don't mind check-calling twice, I think that's going to be a good plan. But on the river I don't think this opponent is going to be bluffing especially on the texture of this river card. So many potential hands beat us -- straights, flushes, and sets. I think our opponent can have enough of those, and plays in a way that we shouldn't worry about check-folding this river.

    I also think leading out on this particular river would be a bad idea. Remember we need him to call with worse half the time or more for that to be a +EV play, and I think this opponent will fold most worse hands to a river bet on this river.

    Make some sense?

    Comment


    • #3
      lol ... the button's so tight, I thought maybe it might have been more EV to fold pre or something Hey, that's not soo bad if everything was *okay* ... up until the river That's a great tip about the 60% being so high, it doesn't leave much room if any for attempted bluffs - in fact it indicates the opposite ... super strong holdings. I've seen stuff about 50% being a decent number, but I hadn't seen anything about people with numbers that are unusually high - makes total sense that they must not be bluffing much if at all, and that they're mostly value-betting really strong hands. And you know what, there's regs that are even nittier than this one (VPIP/PFR of 10/8, Button steal 15%, W$SD 100%, sample size 350) ... so there's definitely potential for the +60% W$SD to be coming up again in the future. Oh, and I'll have to remember that about needing to have a hand that's sort of middle-of-the-pack to the villain's potential range of holdings ... I think I missed that part, but now that you mentioned it, I could see how that might be important ... to make sure if we're going to bet-fold, that we're possibly ahead of at least half the hands that might call to make it +EV umbup: So many good tips ... always so very helpful. These hand analysis thingies must take a bit of time to think about and write a response to, so I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciate all the time you're putting in to help us all Gareth. I'm working hard to incorporate all these extra things into my game, and I've seen lots of positive improvement already. And then the other trickier stuff, like the folding on the river and the betting/calling stuff ... well, I guess that's going to take a bit more time and practice, but hopefully things'll get better eventually. So thanks Gareth

      Comment


      • #4
        note to self

        LESSON: When playing against somebody out of position who has a 60% W$SD, there's no value to be gained in raising a middling hand in the face of uncertainty because they're not likely to call with marginal holdings. And there's probably little danger of getting raised by anything less than a strong holding, and hence little danger of being placed in a tricky spot. If raised by somebody with those stats, better just to fold.

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