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Flop a monster - but not the nuts

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  • Flop a monster - but not the nuts

    So I dunno Ed
    4 Time Bracelet Winner



  • #2
    Hi Ed,

    I assume that this is Zoom and that you have no reads on the opponent.

    I really hate these spots in Zoom where you do not have the absolute nuts but you feel obligated to call. Unfortunately the amount of times I am second best in these spots makes me think my lucky leprechaun does not like me much any more

    Lets look at the action in some detail and think this through. What range is the villain opening UTG? Is it only Aces or other premiums? I have noticed a real proclivity for players opening broadway type hands utg in Zoom, so I think K10 and QJ are definitely in his range here as well as As.

    I like your 3 bet pre but marginal hands are still probably going to have a look here as well as monsters. You flop great although I feel the continuation bet is too small. The only hand beating you is pocket Aces and unless you have a specific read I think building the pot is best here. The villain calls, turn is a blank and you follow up with another small bet. Again I would have probably bet three quarters pot or even over bet.

    The river brings a ten and the opponent ships all in to a $4.55 pot. This seems really odd to me. Has he really been slow playing Aces? It is the only hand that can beat you and he could have it, but why wait until the river to grow the pot? He could also have AK as well but you are holding AK blockers too. JQ and K10 just got there on the river and that would seem a more likely reason to shove then.

    It is a really tough spot and as I said I tend to come out on the negative side of these more often than not but I cannot really fold my house here. I am sure you called here and I hope you were good.

    It just dawned that pocket 10s could also be in his range here.

    Cheers,

    TC
    Last edited by topthecat; Sat Oct 27, 2012, 02:31 PM.

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    • #3
      Hi EdinFreeman

      I don't think we should ever fold here or really contemplate folding. One combination beats us.

      When you said you flopped a monster but not the nuts I just assumed you had flopped TT on T86 or something to that effect.

      Actually, let's talk about the differences between the 2nd nuts with TT on T86 v AK on AKKTX.

      When we have AK on AKKTX there is only one combination that beats us -- the two aces left in the deck.

      When we have TT on T86 there are 16 combinations that beat us.

      Let's count them all

      7s9c
      7s9h
      7s9d
      7s9s

      7c9c
      7c9s
      7c9h
      7c9d

      7d9d
      7d9h
      7d9c
      7d9s

      7h9h
      7h9s
      7h9d
      7h9c

      Wow. That's a lot to be counting .

      What's the point in doing all this counting? Its to say that not all second nuts are created equally. But in this case, you have the kind where the first nuts is particularly hard to come across, just by virtue of the combinations involved. Our opponent could have easily 4 bet that one combination of AA preflop as well, making it even less likely that he has it. So if he did in fact have it this time, I wouldn't sweat it too much. Between KQ/KJ/KT/QJ alone that we will see show up here on occasion we are getting way too good of a price to call the river. In fact I think your play postflop is fine on every street assuming you called.

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks I made the call - aware there was only one combination beating me I wasn't surprised that they did have AA - but was never folding. Mostly I was trying to get any extra value as I couldn't see many players calling straight/flush draws or non-nut hands for many streets of value on such a flop - so my bets were maybe slightly small. Ed
        Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Sun Oct 28, 2012, 08:44 PM.
        4 Time Bracelet Winner


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