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Should I have value bet on the river

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  • Should I have value bet on the river

    Hi, The villain was a playing on 22 other cash tables. I believe I had a tight image at the table, although this was the second time in a row that I 3-bet him preflop out of position. I put him on JJ+, AQ+. The river card completed a possible straight draw that was why I decided to check. Just want to know if that was the best thing to do? Regards, RFlush007
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hi RFlush, You say he is a multitabler reg, often I find these players to play a pretty ABC TAG style. However it would be useful to know any reads you have on the player, e.g. how light does he call down? I think you play the hand well, however on the river I would be value betting (putting him all in). You say you ranged him JJ+ AQ+, I think this a bit off as I don't really see him getting to the river with AQ+, he may call the 3bet preflop and possibly even call one bet on such a low board but with the extreme aggression you have shown betting 3 streets (preflop, flop and the turn) I don't think he will chase a gutshot going to the river. I think his range mainly consists of pairs that called the 3 bet pre, and liked the look of their chances on a relatively low flop, and blank turn. If he is willing to call two streets with these hands then I think he will also call the river if we shove I expect to get called by TT+ and maybe even 99. These sort of hands will check behind on the river as they have showdown value, this is why I choose the aggressive option that to try and get as much value as possible. Maybe my reasoning is wrong here so I'll be interested to see what other say. Good luck Oliver umbup:
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    • #3
      Originally posted by Croyd93 View Post
      Hi RFlush, You say he is a multitabler reg, often I find these players to play a pretty ABC TAG style. However it would be useful to know any reads you have on the player, e.g. how light does he call down? I think you play the hand well, however on the river I would be value betting (putting him all in). You say you ranged him JJ+ AQ+, I think this a bit off as I don't really see him getting to the river with AQ+, he may call the 3bet preflop and possibly even call one bet on such a low board but with the extreme aggression you have shown betting 3 streets (preflop, flop and the turn) I don't think he will chase a gutshot going to the river. I think his range mainly consists of pairs that called the 3 bet pre, and liked the look of their chances on a relatively low flop, and blank turn. If he is willing to call two streets with these hands then I think he will also call the river if we shove I expect to get called by TT+ and maybe even 99. These sort of hands will check behind on the river as they have showdown value, this is why I choose the aggressive option that to try and get as much value as possible. Maybe my reasoning is wrong here so I'll be interested to see what other say. Good luck Oliver umbup:
      Thanks for your reply and you were right, he mucked JJ. Yeah it does make sense that this type of player won't chase his gutshot to the river after my aggressive stance - some good lesson for me. Regards, RFlush007
      Bracelet Winner

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      • #4
        Hey RFlush

        Don't worry too much about not value betting here. It is a tough spot to value bet

        The thing with value betting is that you can't just have the best hand most of the time, the villain has to call with a worse hand more than half the time.

        I think a player like this honestly would fold JJ had you shoved the river. He can read the board and knows he can't beat anything you can bet.

        So while we might have the best hand 90% of the time here, I don't think he calls with worse 50% of the time or more. Honestly I think a lot of his river calling range facing a shove is going to be pocket aces.

        It is a tricky spot to interpret. If your read on a villain is very strong then you can make this shove for value. But a player playing so many tables is likely able to have the discipline to fold here. There is the chance that a smaller bet would work, but I would worry about making this size with the intention of folding to a shove on this board.

        It might be close but I think your play is probably fine. Certainly hard to improve upon
        Last edited by GarethC23; Mon Oct 22, 2012, 06:15 PM.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
          Hey RFlush

          Don't worry too much about not value betting here. It is a tough spot to value bet

          The thing with value betting is that you can't just have the best hand most of the time, the villain has to call with a worse hand more than half the time.

          I think a player like this honestly would fold JJ had you shoved the river. He can read the board and knows he can't beat anything you can bet.

          So while we might have the best hand 90% of the time here, I don't think he calls with worse 50% of the time or more. Honestly I think a lot of his river calling range facing a shove is going to be pocket aces.

          It is a tricky spot to interpret. If your read on a villain is very strong then you can make this shove for value. But a player playing so many tables is likely able to have the discipline to fold here. There is the chance that a smaller bet would work, but I would worry about making this size with the intention of folding to a shove on this board.

          It might be close but I think your play is probably fine. Certainly hard to iprove upon
          Thanks Gareth
          Bracelet Winner

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