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10NL 6-Max ZOOM - A2 suited - blind on blinnd - mixed up

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  • 10NL 6-Max ZOOM - A2 suited - blind on blinnd - mixed up

    Actually it is button versus blind. I played this hand today at the 6-max 10NL ZOOM table 'Klinkenberg' Raised with suited A2 on button - got instantly reraised - but went for another 4-bet reraise myself and was called. Flopped a weak top pair but very strong draws to nut flush and gutshot wheel straight. Opp checked/raised my flop bet all-in. Any thoughts on what has happened so far? Am I overplaying/aggressing? That is a big bet to call - $10 or so. Should I just call now with so much equity? (If I am behind I have lots of outs) Help! Ed
    Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Thu Oct 18, 2012, 05:12 AM.
    4 Time Bracelet Winner



  • #2
    Pretty sure it's AA or AK

    I would Fold, but most will talk about equity and outs and say "go for it"

    Hope you took it down

    Comment


    • #3
      OK I'll say it - "go for it".

      I'm happy with 2 : 1 and the villain is all-in so maybe evens with two cards to come.

      You are profitable judging by your stack size with a 100bb start buy-in at zoom. Though -

      "Am I overplaying/aggressing?"

      I'll leave your 4b range for the hand analyzers.

      Comment


      • #4
        The only mistake we could make on the flop is ever folding.

        Let's look at a 'worst-case scenario' as analyzed in PokerStove.

        Board: Ac 5s 3s
        Dead:

        equity win tie pots won pots tied
        Hand 0: 50.960% 49.97% 00.99% 4452 88.50 { As2s }
        Hand 1: 49.040% 48.05% 00.99% 4281 88.50 { AA, AKs, AKo }

        Against a range of only AA and AK, we are a slight favourite. With the large amount of money already in the middle there is no reason to consider folding.

        Let's talk about preflop, which is more interesting. I really like your play.

        1. We have a hand that is too weak to call a three-bet, even in position, on deep stacks. This is a four-bet or fold decision before the flop and I would consider calling a sizable mistake.

        2. We have a suited ace, it eliminates some of the possible AA or AK combinations our opponent can hold, and should he call before the flop, we will have some 'backup' -- hitting an ace versus TT-KK or some spades.

        3. We are on ideal stack sizes to four-bet bluff. Our opponent can't so happily make a five-bet at this stack depth with hands even as strong as AKs or QQ. That's a big plus for us. Even the times our bluff does not work now, we get to see the flop often.

        4. Our opponent should be three-bet/folding pretty often, given that you opened on the button, and he restole from the blinds.

        I think your sizing is fine.

        On the flop I would strongly consider checking back. Why, when we have so much equity against even his strongest hands? Well I would worry about his weakest hands on htis flop, TT-KK, folding to a single bet. We can definitely induce these hands to check and call a bet on a later street. As far as the other strong hands, AA and AK, we could get all the money in as a thin favourite now, but we could also deceptively check back and hit one of our many outs. On a spade or a four our hand is going to be ultra-disguised. We can bluff catch a street in position, see the whole board, and value bet effectively, should we check back. It is risky business though, since you will sometimes find yourself folding to a river bet that follow one on the turn. If you feel the need to avoid that then we can definitely continuation bet the flop with intentions of getting all-in. It would be a sin to bet this flop to fold.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
          The only mistake we could make on the flop is ever folding. Let's look at a 'worst-case scenario' as analyzed in PokerStove. Board: Ac 5s 3s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 50.960% 49.97% 00.99% 4452 88.50 { As2s } Hand 1: 49.040% 48.05% 00.99% 4281 88.50 { AA, AKs, AKo } Against a range of only AA and AK, we are a slight favourite. With the large amount of money already in the middle there is no reason to consider folding. Let's talk about preflop, which is more interesting. I really like your play. 1. We have a hand that is too weak to call a three-bet, even in position, on deep stacks. This is a four-bet or fold decision before the flop and I would consider calling a sizable mistake. 2. We have a suited ace, it eliminates some of the possible AA or AK combinations our opponent can hold, and should he call before the flop, we will have some 'backup' -- hitting an ace versus TT-KK or some spades. 3. We are on ideal stack sizes to four-bet bluff. Our opponent can't so happily make a five-bet at this stack depth with hands even as strong as AKs or QQ. That's a big plus for us. Even the times our bluff does not work now, we get to see the flop often. 4. Our opponent should be three-bet/folding pretty often, given that you opened on the button, and he restole from the blinds. I think your sizing is fine. On the flop I would strongly consider checking back. Why, when we have so much equity against even his strongest hands? Well I would worry about his weakest hands on htis flop, TT-KK, folding to a single bet. We can definitely induce these hands to check and call a bet on a later street. As far as the other strong hands, AA and AK, we could get all the money in as a thin favourite now, but we could also deceptively check back and hit one of our many outs. On a spade or a four our hand is going to be ultra-disguised. We can bluff catch a street in position, see the whole board, and value bet effectively, should we check back. It is risky business though, since you will sometimes find yourself folding to a river bet that follow one on the turn. If you feel the need to avoid that then we can definitely continuation bet the flop with intentions of getting all-in. It would be a sin to bet this flop to fold.
          Thanks Gareth - that makes a lot of sense. I'm not great at the maths of poker - but my few memorised scenarios of rough odds/outs - like flopping nut flush+gutshot str8 draws v strong flopped hands - flopped sets/2pairs/top pair+top kicker etc are starting to sink in so I was pretty sure I had at worst a flip against the best hands I could put them on (discounting the red aces when sure I am a dog)- and more against a wider range. I didn't put them on a small ace (slightly bigger than mine) that might have hit two pairs - so likely candidates for an Ax were AK/AQ maybe even AJs - and for similar reasons pocket pairs I think are missing rather than hitting sets from the the two small flop cards - and there is only one way they can have AA so KK/QQ possibly and less likely spades KQs/KJs/QJs - only if they see me as pretty LAG on the button. - preflop I'm raising here pretty much every time and would sometimes fold to a 3-bet - but never calling one - the 4-bet is something I use sparingly but it seemed a reasonable option here. Checking back on the flop in position looks like maybe a better option seeing your analysis - at the time I thought I would hate to check and miss the outs on the turn and maybe face a bet with one card to come - which would be a more difficult decision - or check/check the turn, miss again and have to fold the river to almost any bet. As I did bet the flop and then faced their all-in it made the decision easier. Here's the outcome - Sandtrap called it perfectly. I finished the session in profit - so don't mind the outcome here as I made fewer mistakes in this whole session than I have for a while - no big hand losses that I can put down to mistakes - only this big hand went away without doing anything too much wrong - so good to get the confirmation. Cheers and good luck all Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
          Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:17 PM.
          4 Time Bracelet Winner


          Comment


          • #6
            Wow ... I've never played 10nl, and I try not to play deep-stacked. But I would have thought AA would have 5-bet (I guess ... like, I don't know ... to hopefully take down the pot uncontested by folding out bluffs rather than having to play deep-stacked against suited gappers? Or build a pot against a person's value range who might not be able to get away from KK?), and AKo would fold (too spewy to 5-bet fold, to hard to play out of position against an unknown range with just a call?) ... which would have left just AKs. The significance of that being that AKs wouldn't have taken any flush draw outs away from Ed, making him the slight favorite to win by the river.

            But that was clearly wrong ... just thinking about what that means for me for a minute, I guess that means I'm in for another rough adjustment period when I do finally take a shot at 10nl. Which isn't gonna be for ages, but still ...

            Anyways, back to Ed's hand ... lol ... well so that's really interesting to know that Ed was STILL flipping even with that wider range of AA and AKo. I wouldn't have thought that, so that's super cool to learn

            And knowing that, like this is a 4-bet pot with a check-raise - there's already $8.50 in the middle, $5.90 of which is Ed's. So yeah, Ed would have to call $10.62 to win $33.14 half the time, which I could understand might seem on its face like it's throwing good money after bad if one is to just look at the result of this hand.

            But if Ed folds to the check-raise every time, it's a guaranteed loss of $5.90 *every time*. If one were to fold *every time* ten times over, you'd be down $59 for those ten times.

            In contrast, if Ed calls off that extra $10.62, Ed wins $33.14 half the time, which is a net of $5.65 every other time. So calling ten times over, you'd instead be up $28.25.

            Which isn't a ton, and maybe that's why one's *gut* might tell one it's not worth the trouble to put up with so much variance to win so little. But I think the key thing to note is that the pot got big with the 4-bet and check-raise, so to fold when one's flipping I guess is more about loss minimization - like folding and giving up $8.50 would be a big leak?


            It might be counterintuitive, but like ... which would you rather have after 10 hands of this kind ... -$59 or +$28.25?
            Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Oct 19, 2012, 01:48 AM. Reason: Screwed up some of the numbers ... hope they're right now! :)

            Comment


            • #7
              We were definitely a favourite in this scenario when the majority of the money went into the pot.

              Board: Ac 5s 3s
              Dead:

              equity win tie pots won pots tied
              Hand 0: 53.485% 52.42% 01.06% 519 10.50 { As2s }
              Hand 1: 46.515% 45.45% 01.06% 450 10.50 { AdKh }

              We are definitely making money against his hand!

              Comment


              • #8
                Gareth,

                Numbers are just that, NUMBERS
                When you play poker, I'm sure you don't JUST go by the numbers, but you also go with the knowledge you have on how a player plays and the situation at hand.

                With those numbers, it's a coin flip. If we all had a 100k bankroll, sure we can afford to lose a few, but most, if not all here, barely have a $100 bankroll

                The way I see it, pre flop, it's a coin toss, post flop, still a coin toss, you don't have a >60% chance of winning, so it's really a gamble to hit

                In this case, the way the player played, it was kind of obvious he had a monster hand. So what if you let one go? But if you want to gamble, hey it's your money, you do what ever you want with it.

                Hey Sam, there is no need to fold every time, next time it happens, the other player could have 27o. Next time the amount could be only $1.55, next time, next time. Do you know the odds of having A2 of spades, with the exact flop and the opponent with the exact same cards are?? Probably not for the next 10 years, so those calculation are obsolete, sorry

                Numbers should give you an idea of the situation, it should not dictate the way you should play. Way to often we see people here, complain about, they had the better odds, they were +EV, etc etc and lose, but if they'd analyze the play, the player, the situation etc, they'd have a better understanding of the game

                I guess I'll keep on losing money and not know what I'm doing, good luck all ... LOL

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                  Gareth, Numbers are just that, NUMBERS When you play poker, I'm sure you don't JUST go by the numbers, but you also go with the knowledge you have on how a player plays and the situation at hand. With those numbers, it's a coin flip. If we all had a 100k bankroll, sure we can afford to lose a few, but most, if not all here, barely have a $100 bankroll The way I see it, pre flop, it's a coin toss, post flop, still a coin toss, you don't have a >60% chance of winning, so it's really a gamble to hit In this case, the way the player played, it was kind of obvious he had a monster hand. So what if you let one go? But if you want to gamble, hey it's your money, you do what ever you want with it. Hey Sam, there is no need to fold every time, next time it happens, the other player could have 27o. Next time the amount could be only $1.55, next time, next time. Do you know the odds of having A2 of spades, with the exact flop and the opponent with the exact same cards are?? Probably not for the next 10 years, so those calculation are obsolete, sorry Numbers should give you an idea of the situation, it should not dictate the way you should play. Way to often we see people here, complain about, they had the better odds, they were +EV, etc etc and lose, but if they'd analyze the play, the player, the situation etc, they'd have a better understanding of the game I guess I'll keep on losing money and not know what I'm doing, good luck all ... LOL
                  It sounds like you're not comfortable with numbers and so you play by your 'gut'. Which is why I added so much about how poker can oftentimes be counterintuitive. Like sometimes there's more than one way to play a hand, but in this case there's definitely a better and a worse. And a fold is definitely worse. And don't forget ... I've actually played you Sandtrap. What was your thought process with this hand?

                  AQs on the button was me KQo in the bb was Sandtrap So bizarre ... it was almost like don't range at all and just play every hand like it's AA hoping people will give you the benefit of the doubt and fold? Except that I'm not a stranger ...[/spoiler] .
                  Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Oct 19, 2012, 03:01 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    LOL Sam

                    By your gut....LOL
                    A fold is worse...LOL
                    As for the hand, since you posted it and asked

                    I got you down as a fish, someone who likes to play lots of hands, someone who likes to gamble, you could of had QJ and hoping to catch a straight, that's you.

                    Gee, just look at some of the hands you post...LOL

                    Since you like numbers, plug in Poker Stove my hand, the flop and your range of 20%, you'll see I'm favorite 69% to 31%. So what does the number tell you? ........LOL

                    Keep on studying those numbers Sam
                    I'm done
                    GL

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                      LOL Sam By your gut....LOL A fold is worse...LOL As for the hand, since you posted it and asked I got you down as a fish, someone who likes to play lots of hands, someone who likes to gamble, you could of had QJ and hoping to catch a straight, that's you. Gee, just look at some of the hands you post...LOL Since you like numbers, plug in Poker Stove my hand, the flop and your range of 20%, you'll see I'm favorite 69% to 31%. So what does the number tell you? ........LOL Keep on studying those numbers Sam I'm done GL
                      See, that again is just so strange ... because I just gave you a chance to explain in depth your thinking, and all you did was say, "I know you are but what am I?" (ie you look like a fish in that hand, so you said, "no, you are") And then you ran away? This was the THIRD hand we've had together. The first one I TOLD you I folded ATs because I thought it was too weak to play against you. This second hand, you called to the river with the worst hand (Sandtrap is the bb - I didn't bet the river because from the way he talks, I figured he must have either been slow-playing a set with TT or 33, or else was exercising caution with TP like KQs which just made 2pr ... wouldn't you think that's how he'd be playing?) You've also posted hands repeatedly where you 4bet with lower to middle pocket pairs from under the gun - and once you were dominated. You only cbet 45% of the time. And you make the least EV plays (as seen above). But somehow, you're magically pulling in a 35bb/100 winrate? Something's not adding up here ... :/
                      Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Oct 19, 2012, 05:15 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        LOL again Sam
                        3 hands and you know how I play, WOW you're good

                        Like anybody, sometimes I will take a chance and gamble when I'm in profit for my session

                        Why don't you ask me what you want to see and I'll gladly send it to you. I've got over 225,000 hands played this year.

                        What BB/100 do you want, challenge, for the year, a specific month, a specific stake. That way you'll get your story right

                        For your info, my BB/100 for 2012 is 8.74 and my Cbet is 48.97%. These numbers are lower from 10NL and up and much higher at 5NL and lower

                        Please stop crying and know what you're talking about
                        Last edited by Sandtrap777; Fri Oct 19, 2012, 05:41 AM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          If you're going to be giving out advice that runs contrary to conventional wisdom, you need to unlock your stats.

                          It's the only way to hold you accountable.

                          Because the only other time you made your results available in real-time that I can think of was during SCOOP when you sold shares of your action (both last year and this year) ... and last year you were a losing player, and this year you just broke even.


                          If you think the tracking sites are unreliable, then the remedy would be for you to contact them when the data is off. I've only had to do that twice, and I was playing several SNGs a day at one point.


                          jmo

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            This is getting ridiculous Sam
                            Now your comparing my Mtt's to cash games?

                            I don't give out advice, I'm saying how I would of played that hand
                            And I've explained how I played to achieve what I did
                            You seem to have a problem with the way I play

                            I believe that everything being thought here, everything written or on videos are the base to playing poker. Even all those numbers, calculations and statistics are important, but in NO way they should dictate how you should play your hand.

                            LOL Jealousy will get you nowhere. So what do you want? you want me to send you all my 225,000 hands for you to be happy?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                              I'm seriously gonna gag

                              In the big picture, I guess all I'm really saying is that I think there's lots of different ways for different people to gain an edge in poker, and there's lots of different ways for different people to have leaks.

                              And that having an aptitude for complex mathematical theory, and being able to apply it in the moment is +EV. So if somebody's arguing that for them math has been -EV, then maybe it has been for that person ... but that isn't true of everybody.

                              I guess that's all ...

                              Comment

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