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10NL 6 Max faced with huge river bet

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  • 10NL 6 Max faced with huge river bet

    Villain 4: 40 hands, 64/29, AF: 1.5, 3bet: 18.8% (16), Flop donkbet: 43% (7) So he was loose and tended to play back against PFR on the flop. Preflop: I decided to go for the squeeze play for value, figuring that Villain 4 raised with a wide range of hands. Flop: Flat his donk bet, not wanting to fold out his bluffs. Turn: I bet small for value, putting him on a flush draw. Was thinking if he had a set, TP, he would not have checked but bet. Also my bet sizing made the pot large enough to go all in by the river. River: Huge bet by him, putting him on a bluff hence I called.. Judging from the sequence of events, what would you have done differently?

  • #2
    I'm not one of the analysers so I'll leave that to Dave (TheLangolier) and co but just thought I'd throw my thoughts in

    Such a tricky spot and I feel your pain! It's hard to believe that those kind of players EVER 'have it' isn't it. I think we get it into our heads that we just don't believe them whatever they do, or at least I do. It seems to me that you played the hand fine apart from calling the river bet with a 'one pair type hand'.

    Although it's so much easier to say than do I think not being tempted to look him up in that spot just because you don't believe he has it is going to be more profitable in the long. Wait for the spots when you have it and let him pay you off.

    But I am struggling with the same kind of issue at the moment so this coming from an empathetic observer rather than any kind of authority.

    His play was clearly fishy and the proper analysers will able to comment on your bet sizing and whether is was appropriate, but even so you are behind to several respectable two pair hands on that board even if you don't think has the 6.

    It's tough in the moment making that lay-down though eh. But hey, if it was easy everyone would be winning!!

    Good luck. K.
    Last edited by CptKevUK; Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:44 PM.

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    • #3
      Hey TheAwesome I think there are two ways you could have played this hand better, the first would be to raise the flop and the second would be to fold the river. Let's talk about the flop raise first. You make an excellent preflop decision and flop a value hand, that is a hand worthy of value betting and value raising. Your opponent donk-leads out on the flop, as the stats on your HUD would indicate he does often. However, his AF = 1.5, which is pretty passive. Hence I would expect him to not continue bluffing very much. He is very much the one and done bluffer. For that reason, there isn't too much value in "keeping his bluffs in" as you say. It might be of more value if we had a weaker hand, but as it stands we should be interested in getting as much money in as soon as possible while the board is so good for us. Again, not expecting him to bluff again is crucial. On the river AF = 1.5 comes into view again. He simply isn't bluffing here or betting a worse made hand. He is playing a ton of hands before the flop, hence his high VPIP. That means that he can have many straights on this board even though he would have had to call a three-bet out of position and get to the river with a 65 type hand. This villain is capable of showing up with all manner of straights here and his 51bb bet is an enormous price to pay to make sure that's true. Hence I would fold the river. So, this is a difficult hand to master, we have a lot to put together. I think you played preflop and the turn fine. I think the flop call is a mistake relative to raising, not a bad call by any means of course. The river is really the spot to try to improve, as I said 51bb is a huge bet, and saving those bets every now and then can do wonders for your bankroll umbup:

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      • #4
        @CptKevUK: Yes very fishy play there and was a headache on the spot hahas. Was thinking if he was bluffing.. Nice hands you posted too!

        @Gareth: The "one and done bluffer" totally didn't cross my mind. Totally agree that we should raise the flop to gain maximum value from his weaker holdings. Guess the fish get there some of the time. 51bb screams strength from villain type with lower AF so it's an easy fold. Will try not to be the bluff catcher against them

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