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2nl fr aq bb

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  • 2nl fr aq bb

    Villain is 55.0/0 (20). I did a raise with AQ at BB. My intention was to punish limpers. I think it's a mistake. Since I will be out of position, check might be better. I feel my call on the turn also is a mistake. I was counting odds with overcards(6) + King(4) = 10. Even at 10 odds, the call seems to be a mistake. My biggest question here is how should I discount odds on the turn. I think when there is a pair on the board, the high card odds and straight odds are all no good. If villain has a trip, my over card has no odds. If villain has a boat, then the straight draw is drawing dead.

  • #2
    I think the raise preflop is great here, often everyone will just fold, you also have a strong hand against all the limpers ranges.

    Any reads on how this player plays post-flop? He has a shortstack and looking at his stats he is a fish.

    Flop bet is fine here, although it hits some of his range. On the turn you check so he might just be betting at that, or he could have something.

    If you do call the turn bet and one of your cards comes, with his stack just shove every time.

    We're playing against the opponents range here, which could have a lot of Jx and Tx type hands in it. Could also include KQ, Q9, 2 random hearts, any sort of pocket pair.

    I think all your outs could be good against certain hands in his range, but not all outs vs all hands. Even saying all of our outs are good, we have a 22% chance to improve on the river, I dont think I'd be taking those chances on the turn, but on the river is a shove.

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    • #3
      Make an estimated guess on discounting your outs when they're not clean (meaning not guaranteed to give you the best hand). Like here if you have 10 outs to improve, maybe count 5 to devalue them for the times you hit an ace and it's not good, etc.

      Regardless, I don't like your check-call on the turn either. Don't mind the preflop raise to try and iso the super loose fishy guy, you have to make this raise big or everyone will come along, and you did this nicely imo. The stack to pot ratio is 2 heads up against a super wide range, this guy missed a lot, and when he calls the flop it doesn't mean you're beat yet. I'd have no problem putting him the rest of the way in on the turn. He'll fold sometimes, yielding us a big pot, he'll call with worse sometimes (KQ, Q9, 98 come to mind for starters, as well as some worse ace highs like A9 probably), and when he's in the lead you should have some outs to fall back on most of the time. If you miss the river here are you going to check and hope he gives up? Fold if he puts the rest in? Check-call off with ace high? I think it's probably better here against a huge loose-passive fish to simply put him in yourself, it should be profitable with all those factors combined.
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      • #4
        Thanks all. I agree the pre-flop raise is good, AQ is very unlikely dominated given all the limpers.

        I think I should not C-bet on the flop. He limped in from early position and called a big raise, I would put him on suited connectors, small pairs or two high cards. On the flop, he is likely to be ahead with Jx, Tx, or small pairs, or has draws. Since he is passive, I think it's a mistake to bet into him if I don't have a made hand. The reason why passive style is often a losing strategy is because they don't bet much when they are ahead. If I bet into them without a made hand, I'm just helping them get away from their problems.

        If he bet on the flop after I check, I think the chance that he is bluffing is small since he is passive. Then I will just calculate my odds to call or fold.

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