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2nl Zoom - 88 OTB. River value bet?

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  • 2nl Zoom - 88 OTB. River value bet?

    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    Pre flop the CO raises to 4x; I'm in position and I'm getting over 20-1 in implied odds so I decide to cal to set mine. The blinds fold and the flop comes down pretty good for two 8's. He c-bets and although the bet is pretty big I don't think I should fold on this flop, Although he would fire hands I'm well behind to like this, A9/77/99, he would most likely fire overcard misses and perhaps even smaller PP. I call but am ready to fold if he continues to fire the turn and I don't improve. The Q comes on the turn and he checks at this point I feel my hand is best, however I don't like raising as most worse hands will fold while better hands will call. I decide to check behind and we see a blank river, he checks for a second time. Is this a good spot for a value bet to around 15c? I think better hands such as JJ/TT/99 will call but also smaller pairs will likely call. Cheers for any help Oliver umbup:
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  • #2
    Hi Oliver,

    I think the time to value bet was on the turn... you surmised that he won't call you with worse, but actually I think that's not entirely true. Since all the flopped draws have missed he may still check/call you with a worse pair or AK. If he's not going to call those hands on the turn, he's certainly not calling them on the river imo, so it's still better to just bet and deny him a chance to realize his equity in the pot. AK has 6 outs to beat you, if he's not going to put another penny in unless he actually draws out, then it's better to have him fold and not see the 6 outs.

    Curious note about your ranging here:
    He c-bets and although the bet is pretty big I don't think I should fold on this flop, Although he would fire hands I'm well behind to like this, A9/77/99, he would most likely fire overcard misses and perhaps even smaller PP.
    It seems you're discounting overpairs completely... not sure why, he's entitled to have big pairs just as often as everyone else.

    At any rate, I think betting the river is too thin, would definitely bet the turn but check down the river imo.

    Dave
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