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2nl zoom - AA in the SB. Horrible river card.

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  • 2nl zoom - AA in the SB. Horrible river card.

    This hand was fun. No reads on the villain unfortunately, not even any stats!
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    Pre-flop I'm out of position and have a big value hand so decide to 3-bet a little larger than usual to 3.5X his raise. The flop comes down pretty good for me, I could be behind to TT or QQ but I think there are lots of worse hands that will definately call a bet such as AQ, KK possibly AK if he likes his chances to hit. I make a 2/3 pot bet for value and he calls. I think the A on the turn is a great card for me, the only hand that just outdrew me is KJ but I don't think this is in his range. I'm now ahead of hands such as TT and QQ; AK just picked up a pair; and AQ made 2 pair. This card seems like a great card to fire the 2nd barrel for value on as I nearly always have the best hand and I can definately get called by lots of worse hands. I make it around half pot as I want as many hands that I'm beating to stick around. Then the J hits the river, I think this is possibly the worst card in the deck for me for two reasons. Firstly it kills all my action from worse hands, secondly a K just outdrew me. I don't feel that I can bet this card and get called by worse so I decided to check, the villain then makes a smallish under half pot bet. I found deciding whether to call or fold really tough. Although he has lots of worse hands in his range going to the river I don't know if he'll bet them when checked to on this given river card. However I am getting around 3-1 which means I only need about 25% equity against his entire betting range, even if he only bets a worse hand 1 time in 4 then this call is profitable right? However all I kept thinking was, does he ever bet worse on this river or is his betting range a straight and only a straight. Thanks for any advice. Oliver umbup:
    Last edited by Croyd93; Sat Aug 25, 2012, 04:38 PM.
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  • #2
    Hey Oliver

    It was interesting to me that you said you didn't think KJ was in his range. Why not? Fwiw I think it is definitely in his range on the turn.

    On the river I think you make an interesting, and correct, point.
    However all I kept thinking was, does he ever bet worse on this river or is his betting range a straight and only a straight.
    That's right, it seems to me. For one if he had a hand like a set or two pair, such as TT or AT or AQ, there is a healthy chance he would have player it faster on the flop or the turn by raising. Moreover some of these, if they ever got to the river, might just check back. I would think JT would also be checking back a healthy amount, a hand that would call to the river.

    I don't think there is much danger here in check-folding. The danger comes in missing value versus hands he would have checked back but called a bet. Betting small here, like 1/4 pot, is definitely an option, to fold to a raise. Our other option is check-fold. I like either, it depends on your read on the villain and just how willing he is to pay off with worse.

    We got a great situation that turned into a bad one. I would much rather burn myself going for value than checking and guessing.

    Gareth

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    • #3
      Hi Gareth, The main reason I didn't think KJ was in his range is I did not think he would call a 3-bet pre with this. I suppose it is probable he would and my ranging was likely off on this one, I think if he calls a 3-bet pre with KJ then he is definately calling the flop so perhaps I shouldn't have been so quick to dismiss it. I like your bet/fold line much better than my check, if I'm honest bet/folding was not something that even crossed my mind when the J hit the river. I definately need to plan ahead more if I had done then I probably would have realised that a bet/fold line is better than checking. When I checked I din't really have a plan of action for if he bet so a bit more forward thinking will definately help me in situations such as these. Thanks for the feedback. Oliverumbup:
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