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KQo on the BTN. Played passively.

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  • KQo on the BTN. Played passively.

    What I know about the villains: qbStyle - Stats are 30/10/0 with an AF of 5.0 (sample size of 103 hands). I consider this player to be a bad LAG, although he has a high AF I'm not exactly sure how wide his betting range is. He is certainly capable of firing without a made hand however I think he would likely give up after 1 barrel he may fire 2. 17Valera71 - Goldmine of a player, super Loose Passive and a complete calling station will fade multiple bets with A high no draws. I have stacked this guy already, he is basically the ideal opponent you want on your left.
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    Pre-flop I don't see anypoint in 3-betting, I'll likely scare the loose passive fish off and I'm also behind the original raiser open/call range. However I don't like folding either as the big fish is in and I'm getting a pretty good price. I flop TPGK and the original raiser continues for 12c, the fish folds and the action is on me. I think that my hand is too strong to fold to one bullet, I called pre-flop aiming to flop this type of hand so I don't think I can fold. I feel raising folds out a lot of worse hands, I thus decided to call. The flush draw completes on the turn but I don't think that this is that scary as it doesn't make up a big part of his range. He fires again and again I feel inclined to call, I don't want to fold as he could be firing worse hands 'for value' such as 99/TT/JJ, worse queens and he may even fire AK like this. He's obviously betting hands that are ahead as well but I feel that I'm ahead of his 2 barrelling range. For the same reason as on the flop I don't like raising, so again I decided to call. On the river the 7d hits and he checks to me, could I make a thin value bet here to get called by worse Q and mid PP's. Or am I only likely getting called by better hands, in which case I should just check it down? Also is my play on the other streets okay or is it a bit too passive? Thanks for any help. Oliver umbup:
    Last edited by Croyd93; Thu Aug 16, 2012, 04:21 PM.
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  • #2
    Hey Oliver

    I think this is a close decision on the river. Our opponent has shown strength by

    - raising preflop
    - continuation betting into two opponents
    - following this up with a turn bet

    But some of the better hands he could have like sets and flushes we would expect to often bet on the river. So really some of the hands that beat us that we would expect to see a check from are AQ, KK, and AA. AF = 5 doesn't necessarily tell us how he treats the river in terms of aggression. Sometimes people are much more aggressive on some streets than others.

    Some of the hands we are trying to get value from are QJ/QT/JJ. Not too many, but they are there. Overall I would say it is close. This means that if we are going to make a value bet we should make it smaller. I'm thinking one third pot if we are going to bet.

    Overall not being there at the time it is hard to say but I would default towards checking back. I just expect players at this level to check AA/AQ/KK on the river very often, while not necessarily betting the turn with QJ/QT as often as I would myself. When your opponent can't value bet the river effectively this is going to change how you view their river range substantially. Also, don't rule out the possibility that he's going for the sneaky river check-raise with the nuts

    Gareth

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