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5nl - Thin value river bet

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  • 5nl - Thin value river bet

    Villain is 30/22/1.0 over 55 hands. I think his stats were a little more TAGish when the hand was played (not sure), but HEM2 doesn't show stats that were available at the point when the hand was played for some reason. I was 25/24/2.67. I open with my standard 3x raise and the BB calls. Flop comes KT6ss, he checks, and I bet about 3/4 of the pot. I could get value from Kx hands and flush draws. I think I could have fired a pot sized bet too and still get value from the same hands. He calls and his range still consists of mainly AK-KJ and flush draws. The turn is a blank and he checks to me again. I think I made a mistake here by not betting larger. He could still be holding a king, but when he checks to me a second time, I think his range is leaning more towards some kind of draw than a made hand, unless he's slow playing. I think his AF was a little higher than 1.0 at that point, but if I knew how passive he is, I'd be even more inclined to bet larger. I bet .65 into .84 and he calls. The flush gets there on the river (as well as 42 and 74 straights but those aren't very likely) and he checks a third time. I decide to go for thin value since there are a few worse hands that could call. Even though he will show up with a flush here some of the time, I think bet/folding would be better than checking behind. He could of course bluff me off my aces here, but until I see that he's capable of bluffing, I'm going to give him credit if he shoves. I don't think he'd bluff this board very often, if ever. I'm not sure about the bet sizing here, although I feel that it's fine. ....

  • #2
    Hi Feskprins!

    In a spot like this Fesk, it is totally reasonable to bet for value on the river. As you said, the villain has hands in his range that you beat which will call. The thing you want to avoid is comitting yourself to calling a C/R jam by the villain that you do not think might be made as a bluff often enough for you to call. Let's look at it...

    The pot going to the river is $2.14, and the villain is the effective stack with $3.94 behind.

    The thing you want to decide when you are going to bet for value on the river spade, but not CALL a shove, is how often the villian might shove on a C/R with a lesser hand that your AA.

    As this villain is not very aggro, and has played a pretty passive line all the way down, he is unlikely to shove on this river without at least a set. Even sets would be suspect for him to shove, since a passive player is going to tend to be "scared" you hit the river.

    Now you need to look at what he might call on that you BEAT. He has called 2 barrels, so you have to think he is willing to call a 3rd barrel here quite often. The times he will fold are likely to be bottom pair type hands on the flop, straight draws only that did not get there, and other very WEAK hands.

    The way this board rolled out makes it pretty likely the bulk of his range consists of flush draws he is too loose to muck and that got there, and Ks or Ts in his hand. He would probably have to have BET or RAISED a flopped set on the turn at the latest, because the number of potential draws radically increased (this is not to say he must, but he has enough aggro in his stats to probably have done so).

    I'd not want to bet so MUCH I am getitng fat odds to call a river shove. Betting pot would result in a decision to call $1.80 for a chance to win $8.22. Getting about 4.6 to 1 to call in that spot would mean you are only going to need a 22% chance to be "right" in calling to break even. I doubt the villain is shoving quite that often here given his line, but the fat size of the pot and the large river bet by you might obligate you to a call if you cerdit him with ANY ability to bluff. Also, there is no real reason to suspect the villain has a hand strong enough to call a pot bet on the river with a holding you beat.

    A third of a pot bet will get you the calls you desire by most of the weak made hands the villain might have, but it also leaves enough in his stack to think he might have a shot at bluffing you off the pot. You'd be hard pressed to call a slightly larger than pot sized shove with 1 pair on this river.

    So I'd think that anywhere from a half pot bet up to about $1.50 is the amount you'd want to select. Youa re closer to the top end of that sizing range than the bottom, so overall I think your sizing choice was spot on.

    hope it helps.

    -JDean
    Double Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      Thanks Dave, you filled in the blanks I forgot to consider in my reasoning. Much appreciated! umbup: ....

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