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10NL 6-max deep stacked: flopped a set, turned a boat but fold the river

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  • 10NL 6-max deep stacked: flopped a set, turned a boat but fold the river

    I only have 20 hands of history on this guy and haven't seen a showdown yet. He had stats of 37/7 with an AF of 5,00 but over 20 hands this doesn't really much My pre-flop play was pretty standard. The villians min 3bet was kind of weird and since this was his first 3bet i didn't quite know what it ment. I flopped a set and raised for vallue. The turn paired the queen so if he had Qx this was a great card for me but if he had an overpair he might be more afraid he was beat. When the river came a king i thought he could have KQ or KK but i was still gonna try and get value from AA or Qx that wasn't a boat. Unfortunately he check-raised so i thought he had KK or KQ because i think he would have just called with AA or AQ. My question is here obviously: Should i have called or just checked back the turn? I really didnt see him playing anything i could beat this way but i was getting a really good odds to call.

  • #2
    Hi magiciantom,

    You called the open raise and called the 3bet with a caller behind, this looks like trouble - ok you hit.

    I'm tending to 3bet my 88, see if I get 4bet and get away from this cheaply.

    Post flop what could the villain have leading out. You could take the AQ or KQ line but my gut feeling is QQ.

    Is AQ or KQ 3betting pre - quite possibly yes. Betting the Q high flop and calling your raise the alarm bells are ringing.

    Lets see what the analyzers say KQ all the way an impressive AQ bluff on the river or quads.


    • #3
      Man that is nasty. I think it is safe to say, at the very least, villain thinks he has the best hand on the river. In my opinion for that to be the case the bottom of his range is trip queens A kicker. Top of his range is KQ or KK (third or second nuts), and finally QQ for quads (absolute nuts).

      Problem is, you can't really put him on that tight of a range until he reraise shoves the river. The K is really not the best river card and if it concerned you, check/calling is a decent option. Kind of just hoping he doesn't shove and you save some money when your beat. Really hard to fold your hand here.

      Villains min reraise preflop doesn't really support the idea of KK too much. Certainly could have that hand, but wouldn't he have raised bigger? KQs and AQs are likely hands for such a strange reraise.

      I could definitely see villain check/calling turn with trip queens. There aren't a whole lot of worse hands you could have and call a raise with. Once he reraises all-in on the river I think KQ is more likely than AQ. Both are possible though. KK and QQ are both unlikely considering the betting line villain took throughout the hand, but still a small possibility.

      Without stronger reads I don't see any way of getting away from your hand. If you have your suspicions going to the river you could try for a check/call. Otherwise the value bet seems fine and once he reraises the pot is so big I think you just have to call and hope for the best.



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