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NL10 AA turn fold after check minraise?

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  • NL10 AA turn fold after check minraise?

    [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    Hero (MP): $17.81 (178.1 bb)
    CO: $6.58 (65.8 bb)
    BTN: $4.72 (47.2 bb)
    SB: $3.04 (30.4 bb)
    BB: $10.82 (108.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A:heart: A:club:
    Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.65) 4:spade: 6:club: 4:heart: (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

    Turn: ($1.45) 8:club: (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $1.03, BB raises to $2.06, Hero folds

    Villain's stats: VPIP:46 PFR:15 Agg freq:32% H:73

    I just folded my hand here, because he check/minraised me here, and according to the Baluga Theorem. It was good, because he wasn't representing to much here, and maybe he do it with weaker overpairs?

  • #2
    Hi Nocco,

    I'm not folding here personally. The Baluga theorem is more and more relevant the tighter/more straightforward a villain is. This guy's stats over the first 73 hands indicate anything but. Of course we can be beat here but there are also a lot of worse hands I could see them showing up with like overpairs, pair+draws, just draws, etc. Bad loose and aggressive players should show up with enough worse hands in a spot like this that I would generally call, and call any reasonable river bet or value bet the river myself if checked to.

    That's my thoughts anyway.

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