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NL25 AKo 3-bet pot bet/fold turn?

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  • NL25 AKo 3-bet pot bet/fold turn?

    [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    MP: $24.85 (99.4 bb)
    CO: $31.83 (127.3 bb)
    BTN: $14.71 (58.8 bb)
    Hero (SB): $25 (100 bb)
    BB: $23.55 (94.2 bb)
    UTG: $27.24 (109 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with K:spade: A:heart:
    UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.75, BB folds, MP calls $2

    Flop: ($5.75) Q:heart: A:spade: 7:club: (2 players)
    Hero bets $2.74, MP calls $2.74

    Turn: ($11.23) J:heart: (2 players)
    Hero bets $5.36, MP raises to $10.72, Hero folds

    [spoil]Results: $21.95 pot ($0.99 rake)
    Final Board: Q:heart: A:spade: 7:club: J:heart:
    MP mucked and won $20.96 ($10.11 net)
    Hero mucked K:spade: A:heart: and lost (-$10.85 net)

    Villain's stats: VPIP:25 PFR:17 Agg:24% H:149

    The bet/fold is good on the turn against him? He seems like a tag player, and he is fairly passive, and the board is hit his calling range.

  • #2
    Hi Nocco,

    Bet/fold is a good line if:

    A) We expect to get called by many worse hands, and B) we only expect to get raised if we're beat.

    In this case it seems likely we are beat most of the time when this villain type clicks back the turn, and we don't really have enough outs to call, so I think folding is good. But I'm not sure that Bet/fold is the best line, since this guy is a TAG it's hard to think a second barrel is getting called by many worse hands. AT maybe? Is he raise/calling preflop with weaker aces? Or even AT for that matter? Like you said this board smashes his range, with the exception of pocket pairs that have missed, but those are folding to your flop c-bet anyway. I think I might prefer to check and call rather than bet fold, at least this way we give the villain room to maybe try a one time bluff, or to get a curiosity call on the river out of hands like KQ or A-little.

    Tought spot, but yes I do think we're beat here, this villain seems like exactly the type to fit the mold of the Baluga theorem.
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