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5nl 6max AQ- Unsure draw spot

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  • Nashy1996
    started a topic 5nl 6max AQ- Unsure draw spot

    5nl 6max AQ- Unsure draw spot

    PokerStars Hand #78784378710: Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05 USD) - 2012/04/13 4:43:22 ET
    Table 'Muliphein IV' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
    Seat 1: Saf-Margo89 ($2 in chips)
    Seat 2: TATS1980 ($12.84 in chips)
    Seat 3: IN_DE_TAS ($5.30 in chips)
    Seat 5: BIGATY1 ($2.13 in chips)
    Seat 6: Nashy1996 ($6.71 in chips)
    Nashy1996: posts small blind $0.02
    Saf-Margo89: posts big blind $0.05
    NewVobler: sits out
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Nashy1996 [Ah Qh]
    TATS1980: folds
    IN_DE_TAS: folds
    BIGATY1: calls $0.05
    Nashy1996: raises $0.15 to $0.20
    Saf-Margo89: folds
    BIGATY1: calls $0.15
    *** FLOP *** [4h Td 2h]
    Nashy1996: bets $0.25
    BIGATY1: calls $0.25
    *** TURN *** [4h Td 2h] [6c]
    Nashy1996: bets $0.45
    BIGATY1: raises $0.70 to $1.15
    Nashy1996: folds
    Uncalled bet ($0.70) returned to BIGATY1
    BIGATY1 collected $1.77 from pot

    Hey Guys,

    In this spot i just didnt really know what to do against this stack size when they raise me on the turn my implied odds were non existant so i decided to fold i just felt unsure weather to get it in or fold and i decided given my uncertainty i let it go.
    My opponent was a loose/passive opponent with stats of 61/14 over 50 hands i dont think he's raiseing without strength here.
    Thanks guys

  • Nashy1996
    replied
    thankyou Dave for clearing up this spot i really didnt know what to do in the moment,and i agree with not really having fold equity with this villian anyway i probably should have realised that.
    After i wrote it i thought to myself that pfr 14 isnt really that passive and doesnt apply to post flop play either, thanks for the reminder
    Thanks again Dave

    Leave a comment:


  • TheLangolier
    replied
    Hi Nashy,

    I think this is a call.

    I agree you are beat right now in that he's never doing this with a draw and air seems unlikely, he's got at least a pair the majority of the time.

    Here's the thing, there are some implied odds. He's left himself .53c behind. If you improve your hand you are going to get that .53c in almost for sure. If you miss the river, you don't have to pay off the last .53c since you're hand is basically never good. So it is a safe estimate to say you are calling .70c to win 3.08 ($2.55 pot + his last .53c), which is 4.4-1 on the call. Considering that catching an ace or queen will be good at least some of the time, I think calling is +EV.

    That being said, I'm not sure I would even barrel the turn. We have a big draw but this guy is so crazy loose once he calls the flop I don't think he's ever folding to the barrel, which means we're just charging ourselves to draw. If we check, we will get a free card some of the time when he checks back some 1 pair hands. If he bets, we can call... the normal concerns with doing this (losing fold equity, and giving up the lead) aren't really a problem vs. this villain type as fold equity is already very small once he calls the flop, and we can still expect river value from this guy when we improve to the best hand. Yeah we'll just be giving up when we miss the river, but 3 barreling really doesn't scare crazy loose players too much when they have a pair, so even if we barreled the turn we should be giving up river misses a lot anyway.

    BTW you're misinterpreting the hud stats a bit maybe. 61 vpip is super loose but 14 PFR is not totally passive preflop either, and it's a preflop stat so it doesn't address his post flop aggression tendencies at all. The sample size is small but the guy has voluntarily seen about 30 flops already so we should have some info on his post flop aggression at this point.

    Dave

    Leave a comment:

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