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Would you call even if most probably u r behind?

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  • Would you call even if most probably u r behind?

    1raises and everyone calls.. I flop the lowest set someone bets I raise and he shoves. For me he can only have a straight but I have a redraw.. I call but in this case I had to fold right? I had around 20% right? Etienne

  • #2
    Actually you are only behind 35:65, not 20:80. If the villain wouldn't three bet QQ or JJ preflop then T9 is reasonable but could they have held QJ as well? Against a hand of QJ or T9 you are the better side of a flip at 52:48. If you can't rule out QQ or JJ in addition to QJ and T9 then you are once again behind at 43:57.

    Placing a villain on one specific hand is typically a mistake, unless you have information you haven't divulged.

    I am making this call every time I given the situation as I see it.

    Good decisions ftw!

    Comment


    • #3
      Hi Etipac.

      I have to agree with Joe, this is a call.

      Just putting the opponent on a range of top 2 pair+ (QQ/JJ/QJ/T9) gives you roughly 42.8% equity.

      The size of the pot after your raise and his shove is $25.90, and by calling you are risking $13.90 getting 1.86 to 1. You only need about 35% equity to break even on calling. Even if he rolls over his EXACT hand (T9h) ad shows you, you are right around break even on a call with 34.8% equity...

      The only way you can fold is if you totally REMOVE top 2 pair hands form his range, and given that the SPR versus the effective stack (your's) was just under 4, I'd really have a hard time removing QJ from his shove range here.

      Good call, bad luck. Next time pair the river and take down the monster pot!

      Hope it helps.

      -JDean

      Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

      92,070 games 0.016 secs 5,754,375 games/sec

      Board: Jc Qd 8s
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 42.778% 42.15% 00.62% 38811 574.50 { 88 }
      Hand 1: 57.222% 56.60% 00.62% 52110 574.50 { QQ-JJ, QJs, T9s, QJo, T9o }
      Last edited by JDean; Mon Apr 16, 2012, 07:34 AM.
      Double Bracelet Winner

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