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2NL full ring AQoff..check back the river?

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  • 2NL full ring AQoff..check back the river?

    villain 24/7 over 30 hands..Pls Comment...Should this be a check back on the river?

  • #2
    Hi nee,

    I actually like the value bet. It qualifies as thin but I do think it's profitable. The villain is going to mostly have Ax hands on the river. They are not real likely to play AK this way I'd think, but maybe. Even if we include AK on the river we are beating: AJ, AT, A8, A6, A3, A2 and losing to AK, A9, A7, A5, A4. That's 48 combos of Ax we're beating, and 32 combos beating us (including all the AK's, less if we remove some combos of AK). So we are a 48-32 or 1.5-1 favorite to still have the best hand over Ax. Even more so if the villain would raise the flop or turn with 2 pair+, which most will. So yeah, it's actually not even that thin I guess. Good river bet.

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