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16NL shove or fold

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  • 16NL shove or fold

    Hi Guys, Did i overplay my AK here? I had hardly any stats on the guy and he limped EP As i had 2 blockers i think AA,KK was minimized that he could have that. Range could be, AK,QQ maybe JJ AQ lower pockets but thats just a guess without knowing him. AK,QQ,JJ gives 53% against my 46% Should I fold? Ferdy
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    i'm all for raisin' a early limper w/ AKo, but when a basically unknown jams 62ish bb in my face pre i gotta think i'm racin' at best for $10. not really my idea of a good time. :-) i'd have to cut it loose at that point. if it were say in the 20ish bb or less range then it's a go for me.
    may the tinfoil protect you.
    ps your title should be fold or call it off
    Last edited by mtnestegg; Tue Apr 10, 2012, 01:28 AM.
    May the tinfoil protect you. MT


    • #3
      Hi feydr.

      In my experience, this sort of line by an EP player is usually a reasonably strong middle pp (JJ thru 99), because those are the sorts of hands people think are a bit too strong to fold, a bit too WEAK to raise pre, but hands they tend to convince themselves are "best" because they always like to assume a raiser is on un-paired overs.

      Given the money you have to call vs what you might win, you need to have around 46.7% equity to break even ($9.95 to cal and possibly win around $11, 1.14 to 1 odds).

      Given that you have no real solid info on the opponent, you probably have to think that he is weighting his range toward pocket pairs.

      Your 2 blockers to AA/KK do matter, so I'd not immediately suspect he was so strong or so "tricky" in his play style to limp/shove AA/KK, although he could be...

      If we remove the smallest pp and largest pp from his range, and include just hands QQ to 77, you have around 44% equity. This is not the price you NEED, but it is close.

      I think you CAN fold here, but even the inclusion of AK/AQ in a limp/shove range would give you the equity to call this big over bet. My personal opinion is that without info, I'd really not want to run the risk of a big stack hit like this if my opponent IS a very "tricky" type who might do this with AA/KK though, and I'd probably fold...

      But I'd hardly call your CALL with AKo a huge "mistake".

      Hope it helps.

      Double Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Thanks guys,

        I was not quite sure! I have no problem bringing it all in and as seen i lose some money with AK's so i might overplay it sometimes.

        i better not ask what a tinfoil hat is

        Bracelet Winner



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