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25NL against a regular

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  • 25NL against a regular

    First hand, but I have notes on the player - Very aggressive in middle to late position - Multi-tables 12-16 - Winning player Now, this is a large bet (HUGE over bet) 1) - Is he scaring me? 2) - I put him on 30%, so I'm favorite at 83%, is it a call? 3) - If you forget about all the numbers theory (because that's what it is, just theory) and go with your guts, do you call?
    Last edited by Sandtrap777; Mon Apr 09, 2012, 07:59 PM.

  • #2
    Usually he has a bigger pair or a bigger kicker at best. A set at worse... He will never bet so big with a bluff there. Fold all day unless you have a v good read and saw him doing it with a bluff. Etienne umbup:

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    • #3
      Not sure why you'd raise in that spot anyway - you're almost inviting him to (what might be in his eyes) re-bluff you on a very dry texture. It's not really a crazy overbet is it? In the sense that most 3 bets here are going to be pretty committing (unless he clicks it back).

      That said, I fold, as Eti says I think you're outkicked or up against an overpair/set far more often than an airball/ spazzed out 10s/jj. (Though I don't have the reads you do on this villain)

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      • #4
        Hi Sand,

        This action on a completely dry flop is very likely for value, and we're not beating anything in his value range, so I think this is a fold. Like the other replies I expect this guy to show us AQ minimum here, and would not at all be surprised by KK, AA, 77, or 22 (or QQ for that matter, but obv only 1 combo of that is out).

        I'm also not a fan of the check-raise without knowing the history. Your action looks exactly like the hand strength you have, and vs. a solid player you are not going to get called by worse (so it's not a good value raise) nor get better to fold (so it's not a good bluff raise). He probably doesn't expect you to check/raise a set on a dry board, so your range looks like a bluff stab or top pair, and his response is that he doesn't care, he wants to play for your stack. He probably thinks by jamming he's more likely to get top pair to stack off as it might look bluffy. To me it just looks like a standard value line vs. your stack size.

        If the history is right, the check-raise can be good... that is if you would check-raise air on a dry single high card flop, and also check-raise monsters like a set, and he knows all this, now he can't narrow your range and can make a mistake with hands like QT or JJ.

        Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
        2) - I put him on 30%, so I'm favorite at 83%, is it a call?
        3) - If you forget about all the numbers theory (because that's what it is, just theory) and go with your guts, do you call?
        2) This is not the right way to look at it. 30% may be a reasonable preflop opening range, but at the decision point his range has narrowed considerably after facing a check/raise of his c-bet and responding by 3b jamming all in. You are definitely no longer a favorite vs. his bet/3b jamming range imo. Basically because it screams value to me, and if it is actually for value we're really not beating anything in that value range. Would he play QJ this way? A mmt winning reg shouldn't. Is he bluffing often enough for a call to be profitable? He shouldn't be. He doesn't expect you to fold top pair is my guess so he's expecting you to call after check/raising the flop.
        3) My gut says we're beat the vast majority of the time in a spot like this, because every time I see it from a mtt winning reg they always seem to have an overpair or a set. So I fold.

        The way the questions are phrased it sounds like you called and caught him bluffing air, but I do think that scenario, while possible, is not probable vs. this type of opponent. (Again, unless the history between you makes him think you'll fold out all of your flop check-raising range, then I can see him trying it. But for that to be his read on you, he has to know that when you c/r the flop you're not ever showing up with a set nor willing to call off with top pair).

        Dave
        Head Live Trainer
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        4 Time Bracelet Winner



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        • #5
          Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
          The way the questions are phrased it sounds like you called and caught him bluffing air, but I do think that scenario, while possible, is not probable vs. this type of opponent. (Again, unless the history between you makes him think you'll fold out all of your flop check-raising range, then I can see him trying it. But for that to be his read on you, he has to know that when you c/r the flop you're not ever showing up with a set nor willing to call off with top pair). Dave
          You are right, I did Since moving up to 25NL, I've played just over 40,000 hands and have taken lots of notes. Been paying attention to regulars (8-16 tables) and how they play. Most will play aggressive pre flop, then fold to a 3 bet re-raise, unless of course they have something, but I never seen an all in, bully from a regular, they usually play for value. If he had a top hand, normally he would milk me for my money, scaring me would make him lose value. (Is this good thinking) So for me it was a bully scaring tactic and yes I did call Here's the result

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          • #6
            Nice read then I guess

            "but I never seen an all in, bully from a regular, they usually play for value."

            Seems somewhat counter intuitive though since you're applying exactly the opposite logic to justify making this call. As I said though, you know the guy (and are clearly more successful than myself at poker in general :p) and I guess in a spot like this if you feel you have a strong read you'd kick yourself for not following it. NH!

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            • #7
              I don't see his action as one designed to scare you though. I think if I were in his shoes once you check-raise the flop I wouldn't expect you to ever be folding at that point, so I would be taking this action for value to get your top pair hands in before any cards come that do scare you from getting the rest in.
              Head Live Trainer
              Check out my Videos

              4 Time Bracelet Winner



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