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Can i lose anything but the max?

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  • Can i lose anything but the max?

    The main villain in this hand is loose passive although i have minimal info he is on my right and running 60/0 with an aggro factor of 0.58 over about 15 hands and i haven't seen him do a whole lot yet.
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    I completed my small blind to begin with as the BB is so passive i think that i will often get a cheap flop to set mine when i miss the flop i check and am willing to fold to any bet. However when the turn comes a seven i want to start building a pot the villain calls the turn i put him on a pair or flush draw. The turn then comes an A and i think that that the button may have an ace and that the BB may still call with some 1 pair hands i bet big as they're 2 other in the pot. Then when the villain re-raises me on the river i figure he's hit his ace and made 2 pair. Should just call or is putting him in the right move, am i only getting called by worse hands or will some 1 and 2 pair hands call with worse?
    Last edited by Croyd93; Thu Apr 05, 2012, 08:15 PM. Reason: included opp's hand in replayer
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  • #2
    well played,

    the passive guy shipped it on the river indicating he hit the A with two pair in my opinion. unless he was slowplaying a straigth with 85 or T8. you have second set and he might even have a set himself. Furthermore his stack is so short that getting it in with a set is profitable

    Comment


    • #3
      Hi Croyd93!

      The SPR created pre flop was 16.5 vs the effective stack. This is on the high end of a medium SPR range, and that favors a set mine certainly.

      77 is a hand you can consider raising to iso on the BB here (afterall, the BTN just limped), but if BOTH players are likely to call a raise by you, the SPR would not really be beneficial for your 77 vs. calling station types. To make the iso move reasonably here, you have to suspect you can take the pot down with a C bet; that is going to be harder enough with 1 station, and if the BTN is a bit station-y too, it is far too risky to try.

      So I like your flat pre flop...

      Your check on the oop flop is fine also, since ther eis an over card here and you are facing at least 1 opp who will probably call you on any draw, or any 9 hit.

      It checks through on the flop, and you bink your set. I really like your bet there. You are now well ahead of most ANYTHING that could call, and facing at least 1 station, you really should start charging him. Both players stay for your bet though...

      There are enough draws possible here that this really should not be troubling though, so I definately lead the river for value. when the station RAISES you though, that is where it gets a bit "tricky"...

      The fact the station suddenly wakes up with enough to RAISE your near pot size river bet has to give you a bit of pause really...

      - He is not the type to bluff a busted flush draw.
      - He probably is far more likely to CALL on a 1 pair hand, than raise those hands.

      Let's break down our options:

      - We are NOT bet/folding. At this point, we can CALL getting 3.5 to 1, and need to be "right" only 22.2% of the time to break even.
      - Our opponent is (almost) never folding here. He simply does not have many bluffs in his range (or ANY really); he has a hand he thinks is best.
      - If we RAISE him all in (the only reasonable raise for us), we are risking an additional 76c to win a total of $1.31, and we need to be "right" about 36% of the time to break even on the shove.
      - If we CALL, we only need to be "right" about 22% of the time.

      So...

      The real question is whether or not he will bet without a straight at least 36% of the time...

      My personal feeling is that he probably WILL over value a 2nd pair A often enough to get that, if only becuase we have such minimal info. If we had MORE info, especially if we had seen him show down hands with CALLS after making 2 pair, then we probably should lean toward a call, but without that I think you are fine going for the extra value with your set.

      Good hand!

      Hope it helps.

      -JDean
      Double Bracelet Winner

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