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NL25 J9s 3-bet pot flop play

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  • NL25 J9s 3-bet pot flop play

    [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    CO: $25 (100 bb)
    BTN: $10 (40 bb)
    SB: $33.46 (133.8 bb)
    Hero (BB): $25.95 (103.8 bb)
    UTG: $25 (100 bb)
    MP: $36.50 (146 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 9:heart: J:heart:
    4 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $1.50

    Flop: ($4.50) 5:heart: 8:club: 2:heart: (2 players)
    SB bets $2.15, Hero raises to $23.70 and is all-in, SB calls $21.55

    Turn: ($51.90) 2:club: (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    River: ($51.90) A:spade: (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Villain's stats: VPIP:27 PFR:20 AF:2,75 H:61

    I shoved here, because I had a flush draw+two overcards and I have some fold equity too. It was good?

  • #2
    the guy donks into you after you 3bet, he is either very clever or a donk.
    A donk is almost never folding top pair or any kind of overpair. he might even call you with a better flush draw.
    A donk just looks at his cards and how it connects with the board, he might just go with anything.

    A clever person however, knows you overplay your hands by alot and if he flopped a set I would lead in to you as well (from reading your QQ hand) so you can shove your AK as bluff, hearts and overpairs.

    besides that the guy just bets small, you are in position; why not just call and see what he does on the turn?

    Comment


    • #3
      Hi Nocco88!

      In my opinion, you over played this hand pretty badly...

      The depth of money was not really here to effectively play J9s for a 3bet pre. By doing so, you bloated the pot, and made it more likely your opponent would be willing to commit on a top pair or over pair at some point in the hand. The sorts of 1 pair hands that YOU might flop with your holding are very vulnerable in those sorts of pots. As you will rarely flop BETTER than a 1 pair hand, playing a large pot can easily cause you problems here.

      If you had indications you might be able to use position to bet strongly on a bluff or semi bluff and cause your opponent to FOLD, flatting with J9s might be an option, but it also carries a pretty big risk of loss as well. You do not really give us the info we'd need to assess our ability to out play this opponent post flop though, so i cannot say if this would be a great choice, a marginal one, or a terrible one.

      All in all, I think I would have just preferred to give up my 25c BB, and look for a better spot.

      You did not choose to do that though...

      On the flop, you see the opponent donk lead into you for a bit under half pot; A bet like this made after an opponent called a 3bet pre flop is RARELY going to be weak. Afterall, if you raised him strong pre flop, isn't there a pretty decent chance you might do so again on the flop?

      Since you bloated the pot pre flop with your 3bet, it is less likely the opponent will fold what he probably considers to be a strong hand as well, right?

      So...

      You state: I shoved here, because I had a flush draw+two overcards and I have some fold equity too.

      First, you have to consider that your large over bet does not really scream "strength". If you held a large over pair or a set, wouldn't you try to extract more value with those hands?

      Personally, i'd assess the chance he will FOLD after calling a 3bet pre and making this lead bet at around 10% or less without some VERY SPECIFIC info that you do not give. this really gives you very little fold equity.

      You also have seemed to over estimate the value of your holding in my opinion. If you had the full value of the 15 outs you state, you'd be around a 65% favorite over a 1 pair hand. The problem is that your statement may not be true:

      - If he has 99/TT, you have 1 over card and a flush draw; you are basically a coin flip.

      - If he has JJ+, you have NO over cards and just a maximum of 9 outs, and you are about a 61 to 62% dog.

      - If he has a Set, you have only 8 outs (maximum) going to the turn and 7 outs going to the river; This makes you a 72.5% dog.

      - If he has a BETTER flush draw, you may have only 3 live outs, and be around a 87% dog, and you are rarely better than an 80% dog.

      With $6.65 in the pot, to risk a CALL of your $23.70 shove, you must have right around 43% equity between your chances to hit, and the chance the opponent will fold. I doubt seriously without a lot more info than you give you can see any more than about 35% equity at MAX versus a range that could fit the villain's actions here. As such, this is clearly a -eV shove.

      I think it might help you to look at some of the videos in PSO. These might be especially useful to you in situations similar to this:

      http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...ment-Decisions
      http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...3-Hand-Reading
      http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...ing-Essentials
      http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...14-Fold-Equity
      http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...-Ratios-Part-1
      http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...-Ratios-Part-2
      http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...quity-Maximize

      Hope it helps.

      -JDean
      Double Bracelet Winner

      Comment


      • #4
        Hi,

        Thanks for the analysis, and the videos I will definitely watch them.

        Comment

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