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I have the nuts on the river, but I fold.

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  • I have the nuts on the river, but I fold.

    Hi al
    Last edited by rule110; Fri Apr 27, 2012, 05:42 AM.

  • #2
    I assume you only folded because of the rake???
    I would of called then called him a dumb ass in chat.

    Comment


    • #3
      It's actually a very clever play if both the hero and villain are both good. Hero should never call this, because it's clearly -EV.

      Comment


      • #4
        You should have bombed the river first. Agree, you can't call this shove as it costs you money 100% of the time. When the board is the nuts never check. You have fold equity from misclicks, time-outs, misreads, etc. and an aware player might realize that they lose money by calling.

        Is there an amount you could have called? If it goes check/check, you win 5¢. Pokerstars's website says the rake at 2NL is 3.5% (maxing out at 30¢--an $8.57 pot). If he bets 10¢ and you call the pot is 30¢, and the rake is 2¢. You'd win 14¢ after investing 10¢, so you'd be up 4¢. Once the rake surpasses 10¢ we're clearly losing. .1/3.5% = 2.86, so a $2.86+ pot is a definite loser. If you bet $1.38, the pot would be $2.86 if called. 10¢ would be lost to the rake so you'd win $1.38 after investing $1.38 making a call break even.

        With a higher rake this amount obviously goes way down. Say the rake is 10%. You still need to fade a 10¢ rake, but now, that's only a $1 pot, or a 45¢ investment.

        So we need .5*(riverpot-rake)=investment or
        .5*(1-R)(P+2B)=B, where P=pot before the big bet, R=rake percent, and B=the big bet.
        .5(1-R)P+.5(1-R)2B=B
        .5(1-R)P=B-.5(1-R)2B
        (1/2-R/2)P=B-(1-R)B
        (1/2-R/2)P=B(1-(1-r))
        (1/2-R/2)P=BR
        (1/2-R/2)P/R=B
        P/(2R)-P/2=B
        P(1/(2R)-1/2)=B

        If we plug in a rake of .035 and a pot of .1, we get that our max callable bet is

        P(1/(2R)-1/2)=B
        .1(1/(2*.035)-1/2)=B
        $1.38=B

        So if we bet $1.40, theoretically he can't call. And if he shoves over that? Well, we can use our same equation, except now there's $1.40 in the pot twice in addition to the 10¢ (we're just interested in the amount he raises over our bet), so we're now talking about a $2.90 pot

        2.9(1/(2*.035)-1/2)=B
        $39.97=B

        So if we bet $1.40 and he shoves over the top we have to call 100% of the time as the rake caps at 30¢ ($8.57 pot).
        4 Time Bracelet Winner


        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
          It's actually a very clever play if both the hero and villain are both good. Hero should never call this, because it's clearly -EV.
          Hi.



          This depends on the rake rate to be -eV. I really don;t feel like looking up the Poker Stars rake tables, but for casino poker this is a pretty clear CALL. why?

          If you FOLD, you lose $4 that you have invested in the pot (the $2 BB and the $2 flop call). If you CALL, the max rake live is $5.00, and of that you are only paying HALF.

          Losing $2.50 is better than losing $4.00.

          Of course this is on line, and I do believe the rake cap in effect in most live games are not necessarily in effect in on line games; this means you MAY lose more by calling than by folding.

          The key point here that I am not certain Rule110 recognizes is that the ONLY reason he may not be able to call on this river is the rake considerations; there is no way either player in the hand will do anything except play board. He isn't clear on this point in his post to be honest, although the ONLY reason he cannot call is the rake.

          As for checking the turn, TBH, this is not THAT huge a "mistake" in my opinion. The villain bet quite WEAK on the flop, and you turned the nut hand. Because of the weak pre flop and flop action, there is a very strong likelihood that all a bet on the turn would do is fold out the opp. With no real draw threats (a set is pretty unlikely with pre flop action, a 2 pair hand is really only marginally possible given the weak action, and there are no flush draws possible), turning the nuts is really not a bad place to HOPE for continued bets by the opp. If he doesn't bite, you will USUALLY have a blank river to try extracting some value...

          this is pretty bad luck the 4th straight card came on the river really...

          @Panicky, I am not so sure it is a "very clever" play by the Villain. Sure, if Rule110 is smart enough to know he'd lose MORE by calling than folding (which he may well know), it is a good play from position. The rake on a 9c or 10c pot is only going to be 1c, and the villain "wins" 4c more than that rake amount form what Rule and the SB put in. But I seriously DOUBT he had any guage of Rule's awareness, and thought his river shove was a "great" play whether Rule called or not. I suspect his thinking was more on the line of:

          "I cannot LOSE this pot, but if the guy across from me makes a mistake and hits his fold button, I MIGHT win. I am shoving just in case!"

          If he thinks that, and Rule110 is not aware of rake considerations and CALLS with no chance of "losing", then both the BTN and Rule lose 15c to the rake. If instead he checks behind, the MAX RAKE is 1c, he wins 4c and breaks even.

          The risk of RULE110 making a mistake and calling makes his shove pretty "dumb" in my opinion.

          -JDean

          P.S.

          I couldn't resist, I HAD top go ahead and look up the rake tables!

          Here is the link: http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/room/rake/

          3.5% to a cap of 30c.

          this would have resulted in a capped rake pot had you called, and your rake cost would have been 15c.

          Losing 4c is better than losing 15c. Good Fold.
          Last edited by JDean; Tue Apr 03, 2012, 12:05 PM.
          Double Bracelet Winner

          Comment


          • #6
            afte
            Last edited by rule110; Fri Apr 27, 2012, 05:41 AM.

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            • #7
              well i gotta say, u learn somethin' new everyday. thank you for making me aware of this. i would never have even thought about rake for one second--though i would have thought just to make sure the board really was the nuts before i called

              Comment


              • #8
                would
                Last edited by rule110; Fri Apr 27, 2012, 05:41 AM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  trope
                  Last edited by rule110; Fri Apr 27, 2012, 05:41 AM.

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