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2NL - Value bet turn/river with AA

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  • 2NL - Value bet turn/river with AA

    Hi folks! This guy had barely been involved in any hands so I didn't really have any reads on him. He was 7/3 over 25 or so hands. I raise 4x from UTG+1 and he flats from the SB. I reckon his range was pretty strong here (~TT+, AQs+), but could also include some marginal holdings such as middle pairs or suited connectors, although that seems less likely. Flop is a two-tone coordinated board, so I decide to bet 2/3 of the pot for value and he calls. The turn completes a lot of draws but also gives me the nut flush draw, so I decide to bet a little less than half the pot, partially to see what he does and see where I stand, but also to give myself a better price. When he calls, I don't really know where I stand. This guy has been playing so tight and nitty post-flop (and passively in a previous hand, in which he had a set) that a big part of his range consists of flushes and straights, and maybe an overpair to the board. He checks to me for a third time on the river and I don't really know what to do here. This was a very weird situation because of his weird ranges and weird... persona, in lack of a better word. I decided to check because there's not much he would call with, and he'd probably raise with a straight or a flush, so I checked behind. These hands are rarely a problem for me but this particular one was. Should I have bet bigger on the turn and/or value bet the river? Or have I missed something else? Thanks in advance. umbup: ....

  • #2
    Not sure turn-wise (Personally I'm betting big again) but as played I'd say river is a definite B/F spot, when he checks it to you a 3rd time w/o raising on flop/turn it's extremely likely you have the best hand. Unless he has a dead on read you'll barrel all the way, in which case he'd be taking a seriously tricky line /w a flush/straight that i don't think people at the micros are capable of.

    (Very happy I read Opp's hand here!)

    Just imo, wait for some proper analysis tho! :p
    Last edited by AceKingBlows; Sun Apr 01, 2012, 04:07 PM.


    • #3
      You have a read on the guy that he is pretty nitty so i think i would bet slightly bigger on the turn (around 3/4 pot) and put him to the test. If he has hit his draw or a set and C/R you then so be it, but you hold the Ad and i do not see him calling a hand pre flop from the small blind that hits this board that well( possibly a slowplayed set of nines). However when he calls the turn I put him on 10+ and is trying to get to showdown, so when you make you're set on the river i think a small value bet is definately appropriate.

      Just my opinion though, see what the analysers have to say
      Last edited by Croyd93; Sun Apr 01, 2012, 06:32 PM.
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      • #4
        Hi Fesk,

        First of all I think we need to back up... have a plan for our hand. Are we willing to play for stacks post flop with 1 pair and a stack to pot ratio of 10? A 25 hand sample size is too small to label someone a nit but circumstantial evidence it is that he's tight so it's a reasonable assumption to work with. Versus a nit we can pretty much never be getting it in profitably post flop with this high an SPR and 1 pair. Given that, I think betting the turn is not good. The most likely responses from a nit are that they will check-raise us (if they have us crushed) or they will fold (the board is very scary for a nit who doesn't have it). Getting check-raised is a disaster, we're never ahead when we do but we have a draw to the nuts... he could potentially raise us off our draw if he sizes the raise large enough.

        If we are willing to commit (we think it will be profitable to do so) then I prefer to bet more on the turn, the board is wet and there's a lot of draws and worse hands we can get value from. Vs. a nit we are extremely unlikely to get more than 2 streets of value from worse hands, if we even get 2, but those 2 don't have to be the flop and turn... they can be the flop and river, or the turn and river.

        As played, I would value bet the river. When the nit calls the turn bet I think it's quite possible he's got a strong hand like a set that is for some reason scared of the flush (nits scare easily)... he will always pay us off with those holdings. As for us being beat, it is very unlikely. There are actually very few flushes in his range as you've read him... his starting range you have as AQs+ and TT+, with a few smaller pairs and suited connected cards as a maybe. Well in the core range he has zero flushes since you hold the Ad. So that leaves a few maybes like QdJd, JdTd, Td9d... not much, if he would even call pre with those (nit probably not). I think we are not often getting called on a river bet, but we are almost always ahead so it can't hurt to try. Maybe make the smaller sized bet that you did on the turn, on the river instead, we're more likely to get a token value bet paid off.

        In the end this guy is not as nitty as the circumstantial evidence indicates I'd say, since his call on the turn with JJ is not terribly nitty... the board is terrible and JJ isn't beating much that you'd double barrel except TT and AK with a big diamond. So he's tighter but probably in the end won't be totally nitty.

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        • #5
          Hi Dave,

          Yeah, he wasn't as nitty as I first thought, but there aren't a lot of hands he's continuing with. These hands are rarely a problem but I just didn't know what to do in this one for some reason.

          Not much for me to say, I learned so much from your post, things I actually forget to consider when I make my decisions, so cheers for the elaborated analysis!

          Thanks for all the replies, guys!




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