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bad river call with KK?

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  • bad river call with KK?

    first hand the opponent played

  • #2
    Hi Sj,

    I really don't like the line you took here. As played I think this is not a good call. Big river bets are usually for value, not bluffs. And it's hard to see what bluffs he would have in his range here. Most players would just check down TT or JJ in this spot. He basically has to have specifically one of the few combos of club draws, have not semi-bluffed earlier in the hand, then be willing to bomb all in on the river as a bluff. It's not likely. Which means most of the time he's betting for value, but what are we beating in his value betting range? Obv. we're losing to QQ and 99. We can't beat AA. About all we beat is AQ, but again, it means he called a check-raise on the flop with air, and is willing to bomb all in on the river in a spot where sometimes players will simply check down or make a smaller bet. Without any reads, I just don't think we're good often enough to make this call profitable.

    I would actually like betting again on the river though. Although the result ends the same for this specific hand, we will do much better in the long run making a river value bet here. The reason is all those worse made hands that will just check behind us and go to showdown, will be very inclined to pay off a river bet since the flopped flush draw missed. TT, JJ, Qx we lose value from not betting again. Especially if we are going to check and call a bet, now we're just paying off better hands while letting worse hands off the hook.

    Check/call is usually good against really aggro opponents, frequent bluffers, and players who we expect have a lot of busted draws and air in their range (more inclined to bluff since they can't win any other way). It's also good against stronger players who do not pay off light but will make thin value bets. Here without any reads in 5NL I would value bet the river personally in this spot.

    One other note, obv. you can 3b preflop here, it's more standard to do so, but taking the alternate preflop/flop line you did is fine sometimes too.

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