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6max 2NL

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  • 6max 2NL

    How to proceed - depending on next card dealt do I continue betting for value? Which cards should worry me? The opp is tight 10/10 over 70ish hands and has not called like this before to either my steals/value bets in the blinds. Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
    4 Time Bracelet Winner



  • #2
    Hi Ed.

    Given that this is a very aggro opp (heretofore he has raised whenever he entered a pot) with quite a tight range, the fact he has not raised at all in quite suspicious to me.

    A big suited ace makes up a lot of this villain's range, but if none of those have "gotten there", it is un-likely he will call a river bet. He may BLUFF the busted big spades if you check the river though.

    A board over pair, 99+, is also in his range, and he may be willing to call on those. You are only beat by AA of those.

    A set might be in his range too, especially if he will call a Blind V. Blind confrontation to spec on any pp.

    As such, I really do not see the size of the pot as one you'd love to find a tight aggro player putting you all in. If you bet ANY river card (except a K, which gives you the "practical nut hand" given his range), the pot would be built enough to let him put his chips in; while he MIGHT do this on JJ, you may also lose the max to a wierdly played AA or set.

    As such, I'm checking just about every river here, with the intent to call up to around a pot size bet.

    I think about the only card which would change my thinking is an A, as there is just too much in his range that he could bet over my river check that I beat unless an A comes. The A though ruins most all the board over pairs as betting hands for him, and if he bets that card, I think I could assume I am beat.


    Hope it helps.

    -JDean
    Last edited by JDean; Thu Mar 15, 2012, 02:51 AM.
    Double Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      I would definitely go for the check/call on the river. He could be calling you down with a medium pocket pair or something like top pair top kicker. If the river is a spade and he bets out big when you check, lean towards folding. My guess is most of the time in this situation the villain is calling you down either because he has the flush draw or because he is putting you on AK. Check/call river unless an A or spade hits, then check and re-evaluate the situation if he does anything other than check behind.

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      • #4
        hey edin, This is a very tricky board and hard to play

        from out of position I would bet a little less, still giving flush draws incorrect odds. Because I hate to play big pots out of position. like 50% of the pot instead of 75%

        this flop is also hard to hit mediocre hands.
        on a flop as this generally an opponent has a flush draw a pair with straigth draw a flopped straigth a set or a small overpair and float.

        you are ahead of all the hands except straigth and trips but, from a tight player you will hardly get value from the hands you beat once you bet twice.

        on the turn I'd go for check-raise and fold to reraise. This will keep the pot small if your opponent doesn't bet, which you can check-call river if a scare card falls. and he will fold out the weakish hands and draws (if you raise significantly).

        a raise size here is very important, mostly in the range of 4 times his bet will be a good raise. when he bets 50% of pot. if he does bet full pot size you can raise 3 times his raise.

        you could bet the river if a safe card falls.

        Sjekkkk

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        • #5
          Originally posted by RockerguyAA View Post
          I would definitely go for the check/call on the river. He could be calling you down with a medium pocket pair or something like top pair top kicker. If the river is a spade and he bets out big when you check, lean towards folding. My guess is most of the time in this situation the villain is calling you down either because he has the flush draw or because he is putting you on AK. Check/call river unless an A or spade hits, then check and re-evaluate the situation if he does anything other than check behind.
          10/10 indicates and aggresive and tight player, he now is very passive. I don't think he is ever on a flush draw, but I haven't played with the guy so I can't say for sure. aggresive player will play draws aggressively. I think he has a made hand either strong or weakish

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          • #6
            I really don't like checking the river personally, we're losing way too much value.

            10/10 is very nitty for 6 max even though the sample size is small. This guy is going to have a worse 1 pair hand in this spot an awful lot. Checking the river is bad (no matter what comes) because he'll simple check all those down and we lose value. Where as if we bet he has the chance to call us down with 8x, 99-QQ (and yes he might flat a hand like QQ pre vs. our steal with his "plan" being to call down if no ace or king come). Also if he happens to be drawing nits aren't really the type to bluff the river when they miss, so checking won't induce a bluff very often vs. this villain type.

            That last part is key, nits don't river bluff often and they pretty much never raise the river as a bluff. So basically I think we can bet any river card to extract value from the many worse 1 pair hands in his range, and comfortably fold to a raise. (Also in some cases nits won't call 3 streets with 1 pair hands assuming if we 3 barrel we have the big pair, but in this case blind v blind we'll tend to get less credit and looked up more as they'll talk themselves into calling on the basis that we may just be pressing light in a blind war).

            Dave
            Head Live Trainer
            Check out my Videos

            4 Time Bracelet Winner



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            • #7
              Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
              I really don't like checking the river personally, we're losing way too much value.

              10/10 is very nitty for 6 max even though the sample size is small. This guy is going to have a worse 1 pair hand in this spot an awful lot. Checking the river is bad (no matter what comes) because he'll simple check all those down and we lose value. Where as if we bet he has the chance to call us down with 8x, 99-QQ (and yes he might flat a hand like QQ pre vs. our steal with his "plan" being to call down if no ace or king come). Also if he happens to be drawing nits aren't really the type to bluff the river when they miss, so checking won't induce a bluff very often vs. this villain type.

              That last part is key, nits don't river bluff often and they pretty much never raise the river as a bluff. So basically I think we can bet any river card to extract value from the many worse 1 pair hands in his range, and comfortably fold to a raise. (Also in some cases nits won't call 3 streets with 1 pair hands assuming if we 3 barrel we have the big pair, but in this case blind v blind we'll tend to get less credit and looked up more as they'll talk themselves into calling on the basis that we may just be pressing light in a blind war).

              Dave
              I DO see the logic of this, but I stand by my suggested line...

              Bet/fold the river is a possibility I considered, and it appears a bit too committing for my taste.

              We would likely be betting at least 35c to 40c on the river blank, raising the pot odds for us to around a 2+ to 1 call if the villain shoves. As we would have to be "right" less than about 1/3rd of the time to break even on a call, a "blank" on the river leaves enough in his range that we BEAT to make me uncomfortable with a fold, but his LINE (being so different than he has shown) makes me un-comfortable with a stack off. I see it like this...

              Blank comes.
              We bet. 10/10 JAMS.

              We beat JJ/QQ chop KK, and LOSE to AA.

              We LOSE to sets, but 66/44 are a bit "low" to be in the Villain's range (unless he is getitng "sick" of us per this comment by OP: has not called like this before to either my steals/value bets in the blinds.)

              We do not get called by Ace/Face hands, and rarely those bluff/jam busted flushes with these stats.

              Even if we have all possible sets in his range (except 3's), our KK has about 58% equity versus a range of 88/44/66, 99+ on the turn. Even removing 99/TT from his river jam range (if they are still over pairs) keeps us on about 45% equity...

              Even taking out JJ form a shove range leaves us with 31% about, and that makes a bet/fold line on the river a bit touchy with the size of the pot a river bet creates; we are right at "break even".

              Since a river bet sticks us to strongly for me to want to fold if I have bet the river and villain jams, and given that we can take out ALL lower over pairs except QQ from his range and still see minor +eV to call a jam if we bet the river, I really cannot see a bet/fold line on the river.

              I CAN see a BET/CALL line on the river, to ensure we extract value if the opp holds JJ/QQ and does not bet the river for us, but again, he has played this hand with such a departure from his normal style that risking a stack off for the chance to POSSIBLY get another call (remember, a nit might stay with AK/AQs but is pretty much never calling a river bet with a busted draw), but since the river bet may NOT get us anything extra, and increases our risk of stacking off...why make it?

              As such, I still prefer a check/call on the river...
              Last edited by JDean; Fri Mar 16, 2012, 02:36 AM.
              Double Bracelet Winner

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              • #8
                Originally posted by JDean View Post
                Bet/fold the river is a possibility I considered, and it appears a bit too committing for my taste.

                We would likely be betting at least 35c to 40c on the river blank, raising the pot odds for us to around a 2+ to 1 call if the villain shoves. As we would have to be "right" less than about 1/3rd of the time to break even on a call, a "blank" on the river leaves enough in his range that we BEAT to make me uncomfortable with a fold, but his LINE (being so different than he has shown) makes me un-comfortable with a stack off.
                It's not committing and pot odds to call a shove aren't relevant if we are beat 100% of the time when the villain shoves. You should be uncomfortable with a stack off, because if stacks go in against a nit starting out this deep we are never good with a one pair hand.

                JDean and I discussed this hand last night on skype, he is of the opinion that the guy will shove worse 1 pair hands over us on the river because it's blind v blind. I don't agree, in my experience this is just never happening from a nit unless the nit is on tilt. He will however call down more often with worse 1 pair hands specifically because it's blind v blind. Nits are just very risk adverse in general, even blind v blind they are worried about stacking off to a big hand, so if he's suspicious we'll get called by worse 1 pair hands, but not shoved. (Unless the nit is tilting at us, then all bets are off, but IF I felt that were the case I think bet/call > check/call >>> bet/fold)

                Dave
                Head Live Trainer
                Check out my Videos

                4 Time Bracelet Winner



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                • #9
                  Here is the river card, deuce of spades - I check then face a bet on a flush board Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
                  Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Fri Mar 16, 2012, 07:48 PM.
                  4 Time Bracelet Winner


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                  • #10
                    With the river check by you Ed, I think you pretty much have to call.

                    48c + 72c = $1.20 in the pot.

                    $1.20 / 48c = 2.5 to 1.

                    You only have to be 'right" that he'd bet a minor board over pair roughly 28.5% of the time to break even on the call, and I'd think you have that chance here.

                    A range of AK spades + 88+, 66/44 leaves you 60.5% here.

                    Taking out 99/TT/JJ from his betting range, and leaving in all sets, the AK flush, and pp QQ+ leaves you with just about 'break even" equity of 28.9% with KK.


                    I call.

                    -JDean
                    Last edited by JDean; Fri Mar 16, 2012, 08:22 PM.
                    Double Bracelet Winner

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