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NL2 TP TK on 2Js9 vs random

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  • NL2 TP TK on 2Js9 vs random

    Villain is complete unknown I really don't know what to make of this =/ [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12151722 BTN: $5.59 (279.5 bb) SB: $1.98 (99 bb) BB: $1.95 (97.5 bb) UTG+1: $4.33 (216.5 bb) UTG+2: $1.05 (52.5 bb) MP1: $2.50 (125 bb) MP2: $1.94 (97 bb) MP3: $0.89 (44.5 bb) Hero (CO): $4.95 (247.5 bb) Preflop: Hero is CO with A:diamond: J:spade: 5 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, BTN calls $0.08, 2 folds Flop: ($0.19) 2:diamond: 9:spade: J:diamond: (2 players) Hero bets $0.13, BTN raises to $0.43, Hero folds [spoil]Results: $0.45 pot ($0.02 rake) Final Board: 2:diamond: 9:spade: J:diamond: BTN mucked and won $0.43 ($0.22 net) Hero mucked A:diamond: J:spade: and lost (-$0.21 net) [/spoil][/hand_history]

  • #2
    I think you made a weak fold.
    You open from late position and the button calls you..

    He reckons you might be opening with a wide variety of hands and AJ is very much ahead of that range.

    You flop top pair top kicker, with the A of diamonds!!!!
    This flop is pretty hard to hit, since the most J´s are weak hands. Perhaps your opponent knows this.

    The only hands you are behind here are trips and two pair and an overpair. furthermore there are many other possible hands here, such as a flush draw and QT that could make this raise. If he doesn´t believe you he can turn a made hand into a bluff like this, such as T9 98 QJ JT 88 77 66 55 44 22...

    What possible trips are there? JJ 99 33 and two pair: J3 J9 93
    So is it logical that the guy has JJ?? wouldn´t he raise pre with that?? and you have the other J so what is the chance? i think 0

    99 and 33 is very much possibleas well as J9. I don´t reckon any player to have J3 or 93 in his hand, unless its me with a good read :P

    An overpair could be, I reckon it wouldnt be very logical but it is a possibility and vs QQ and KK you still have about 25 % equity.

    So after this analysis how likely are you behind? a little bit, factor in that he can bluff and have a J himself with a worse kicker and is trying to protect.

    The only unfavourable thing is you are out of position. I´d have called this raise defo. then if no flush/straigth completer falls I´d check-raise allin. Otherwise I´d check-call and check-reanalyse the river.

    Last edited by Sjekkkk; Mon Mar 12, 2012, 11:28 PM.


    • #3
      Hi Puchium.

      This is definately a spot you'd want info on the opponent...

      Pre flop, with a 243.5BB effective stack (yours), the 4BB you raised that gets called creates an SPR around 25. This is an extremely deep money situation, and the deeper the money the stronger your hand should be to make you willing to consider putting a lot of chips into the pot (or even stacking off).

      Conversely, the deep money means a small pot may make an aware opp think firing of a single "bluff" barrel a bit more often in position.

      This means your lack of info presents you with a problem in the form of controlling your investment in this pot WITHOUT simply "giving up" when you hit the hand that you were playing for when you raised. Without info on this opp's willingness to continue with a bluff/semi bluff, this can be hard.

      I would tend to look at it like this:

      "If my stack were shorter, how much is the maximum stack size I'd be willing to stack off on with top/top"?

      With an SPR on the order of 6 or less, I think I would be ready to stack off on my top/top hit given this somewhat "dry" board. The pre flop pot was 19c, so my top/top hand is "worth" the risk of LOSING about $1.14 more than my pre flop raise, right (19c pre flop x 6 = $1.14)?

      A standard 3bet immediately to define my hand would probably be on the order of $1.25 or so, and while this would only be slightly more than what I am willing to invest, without info on how aggressively my opponent plays, I'd probably have to "give up" to a 4bet. I do not really like that much, as it still allows the opp room to bluff, but costs me MORE than I'd willingly launch on if I were short.

      I think in this spot I would prefer to FLAT the raise to 43c with top/top, and then follow it up with around a half to 2/3rds pot turn bet regardless of the card. This would put my investment at around 95c to $1.12, and would be within the amount I would be willing to stack off on given a shorter start stack.

      The benefit of this is:

      - If my opponent is DRAWING and misses, my strong line is likely to prevent him from raising again (especially given that I hold the Ad).

      - If my opponent is on a better made hand but no straight or flush card falls, he will probably RAISE to prevent me from "drawing", thus making a fold easy.

      - If my opponent is on the draw and he hits, my show of "strength" in my line will possibly allow me to see an immediate raise, again making a fold easy.

      - If my opponent was on a better "made" hand and a flush or straight card falls, he may simply FLAT my turn bet, allowing me to derive value from any re-draws I pick up on the turn (any d gives a nut flush redraw, and Q or T adds straight outs).

      - If my opponent has a better made hand on the flop and a straight or flush cards falls, he may FOLD that hand to the possibility I was drawing. (rare, but possible without info)

      - If I bet the turn and my opponent raises again on a be it, I fold. I know my stack is too deep to be willing to stack off on, but I've only paid the amount I was willing to pay if I had been short anyway. A 2nd raise means he is probably not going to stop betting, and without info on whether he is a rampant bluffer, or will over value KJ/QJ, I cannot risk my stack on top/top.

      So the best course to avoid playing TOO passively when you flop a hand with some decent showdown value would be to flat the raise, then lead the turn in my opinion.

      Hope it helps.


      (P.S. when I said I'd bet ANY turn, this is not strictly true. If I "improve" to top 2 pair with an A, or trip J's, I'd now have a hand with which I am more willing to play a bigger pot, but the risk is still such that I may want to try controlling the pot a bit. In those cases, I think I'd check/call to control the pot to try avoiding a raise that might bluff me off very good value, and then re-assess on the river.)
      Last edited by JDean; Tue Mar 13, 2012, 01:46 AM.
      Double Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Really appreciate for the time you two took in writing this! thank you. lost JDean a bit with the SPR, understood most of it but SPR is still new to me. I know that only the lesser stack counts b/c that's how much I could win and probably someone with 50bb I think it's a shove there on the flop I believe after getting 3bet but I really don't know much about SPR.


        • #5
          Hi Puchium!

          Stack to Pot ratio is a way to help plan your hand around commitment decisions.

          It is an easily calculated number, that relates the size of the "effective stack" (the smallest remaining in the pot), to the size of the pre flop pot when all action has completed.

          Player 1 has $2.00 after betting completes pre.
          Player 2 has $1.50 after betting completes pre.

          Player 2 is the "effective stack".

          If there were a raise and a called 3bet pre, and the pre flop pot upon completion of action was 30c, $1.50 / 30c = 5. This would be a low SPR (SPRs 6 and under are usually considered low).

          If there were simply a called raise pre flop, and the pot was 15c, $1.50 / 15c = 10. This would be considered a medium SPR (SPRs between about 7 and 16 are usually considered medium).

          If there were a pre flop limp, and the SB folded and the BB checked his option making the pre flop pot 5c, $1.50 / 5c = 30. This would be consider a high SPR (SPRs above 17 are usually considered high).

          The lower the SPR, the more likely it is that the effective stack will be all in at some point in the hand. Also, the lower the SPR, the more prepared you should be to get all in (or to get the effective stack all in) on strong single pair hands like top pair (especially with a good kicker) and over pairs. Bottom 2 pair also becomes a pretty good hand to get chip in on in a low SPR situation.

          As you approach Medium and High SPR though, the chance that you will get all in without someone holding BETTER than a single pair hand (or a weak 2 pair holding) goes down, so your willingness to stack off with these hand types should go down as well.

          With the deeper money available in medium and high SPR situations, bluffs and semi bluffs also have a little more "room" to work, as these sorts of bets or raises may exert a "threat" on hands that would be un-willing to call or raise off entirely if the pot grows too large. THIS was the situation you could have possibly found yourself with in your hand...

          Sure, you could FOLD your top/top immediately, but doing so does not allow you any chance to improve to hold the best hand, and giving up too easily when you do flop value tends to make it more likely opponents will bluff you later.

          Simply thinking: "Well, I will LET them bluff me, because they will pay me off when I do flop something like top set" does not necessarily recover your losses either. Aware opponents may fire a single "bluff barrel" at you, and then if you call, they may KNOW you are strong and give up their hopeless attempts. often will you hold a hand that is stronger than top/top anyway?

          This means that in my opinion, your situation here called for you to strike a balance between your hand strength (decently, but not enough to go to the wall on), your lack of info on the opponent's tendencies you were facing, and the risk of folding immediately to the "transparency" of your value range as you perceive it and as opponents may see it.

          Could you fold here, sure you can.

          You are un-likely to maintain control of the overall pot size with a check/call line to the river, and without info to guide your thoughts on the range an opp with position might keep betting, that makes a call somewhat risky (and it also makes a turn C/R quite risky too for all those suggesting that). But immediately giving up on a flop that is one that you;d hope for when you raise AJ to enter is somewhat risky too...only in a different way.

          THAT was why I suggested what I did above.

          For more info on SPR, check out these links:

          Hope it helps!

          Double Bracelet Winner



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