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10NL Set of 4's tough decision on river

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  • 10NL Set of 4's tough decision on river

    Hi! guys, No reads on the opp as he had been on the table for only couple of hands. Did I play the hand too passively post-flop and is it easy fold on the river given we don't have any reads? Again no solid reads on the opp as he had been involved in only two hands since I came to the table. Is it easy fold on the river or can there be a case made for a call? Cheers.

  • #2
    first hand... yuck on that river ez fold imo, but gettin' counterfeit like that is never fun.
    second hand i'd actually raise that river bet. with as passively as the hand gets played he could easily call with as little as a pair, and for sure you get called by 2 pair type hands.i really doubt, with that size river bet he's on the flush,cause you would expect a much smaller bet that he would want called if he was.
    Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Feb 22, 2012, 03:10 PM.
    May the tinfoil protect you. MT

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    • #3
      Hi deadeyz,

      Please only post 1 hand per thread for hand analysis.

      In your first hand I definitely think it's underplayed. We can raise the flop for value, and raising the turn is essential... the villain has trip tens so often here and we will likely get stacks in as a solid favorite (84% with 1 card to come vs. Tx). River is an easy fold for the same reason. We got a lucky result (our failure to raise the turn saving us money on a disaster river card) but we're leaving way too much value on the table over time.

      Second hand, I would never fold on the river as our hand strength is way under-repped. That said I don't like raising either. The villain is overbetting the pot which looks like a strong value line. If we raise on this board the way the hand has played out our holding looks like a flush basically, we will only get called by hands that beat us (flushes and trip aces making a crying call) and likely not get value from worse unless the opponent is very fishy (but we have no reads).

      Dave
      Head Live Trainer
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      4 Time Bracelet Winner



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      • #4
        does that bet really look like value to you? it seems to me to be a push more than value. but i can def see why not to raise now that you mention it.it was QUITE large,but how often do you think that size bet IS value but is over value the way this hand played out? but for sure a call,
        May the tinfoil protect you. MT

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        • #5
          Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
          Hi deadeyz,

          Please only post 1 hand per thread for hand analysis.

          In your first hand I definitely think it's underplayed. We can raise the flop for value, and raising the turn is essential... the villain has trip tens so often here and we will likely get stacks in as a solid favorite (84% with 1 card to come vs. Tx). River is an easy fold for the same reason. We got a lucky result (our failure to raise the turn saving us money on a disaster river card) but we're leaving way too much value on the table over time.

          Dave
          Hi! Dave,

          First of all thanks for your comments guys and apologies for posting 2 hands in a single thread, I will keep in mind that only 1 hand per thread.

          Normally I would play my sets aggressively and if the opp has a better set / big draw then be it. But for some reason in this particular hand I decided to be cautious, maybe because I have been running really bad lately (as you can see from this hand).

          Thanks for your comments Dave, really appreciate it.

          Cheers.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by mtnestegg View Post
            does that bet really look like value to you? it seems to me to be a push more than value. but i can def see why not to raise now that you mention it.it was QUITE large,but how often do you think that size bet IS value but is over value the way this hand played out? but for sure a call,
            it seems to me that the opp either has a better hand or has air. raising won't accomplish anything umbup:

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            • #7
              Originally posted by mtnestegg View Post
              does that bet really look like value to you?
              Large river bets are very commonly value bets, yes... commonly enough that until you see someone do this as a bluff it's a good policy to assume it's a value bet.

              In the case of overbetting the pot it makes no sense as a bluff, they can bluff just as effectively for less. Now bad players do things that make no sense all the time, but in the absence of reads I'm assuming it's a bet for value.
              Head Live Trainer
              Check out my Videos

              4 Time Bracelet Winner



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              • #8
                Originally posted by ketchup143 View Post
                it seems to me that the opp either has a better hand or has air. raising won't accomplish anything umbup:
                i'll go along with that, w/o readsumbup:
                Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
                Large river bets are very commonly value bets, yes... commonly enough that until you see someone do this as a bluff it's a good policy to assume it's a value bet. In the case of overbetting the pot it makes no sense as a bluff, they can bluff just as effectively for less. Now bad players do things that make no sense all the time, but in the absence of reads I'm assuming it's a bet for value.
                works for me. i just seem to assume with the passivity that this was played by the opp. and the big over bet that he was weak sauce (as you say)
                May the tinfoil protect you. MT

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