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10NL A,7s in SB

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  • 10NL A,7s in SB

    Hi! guys, the opp on the BTN had been playing very loose and very aggressive from late position and on several occasions folded to donk bets on the flop. So I figured my A,7s is going to play well against his range. I thought about 3b but decided against it in order to not bloat the pot and being OOP. But in hindsight 3b would have been a better choice as there was a regular TAG in BB who decided to come along. I catch a good flop and improve slightly on the turn but the river bricks. Was check-calling optimal line and whats the best option on the river? Cheers.

  • #2
    Hi Dedeyez!

    In my opinion your line is just fine versus a TAG caller.

    By electing to not go with the 3bet pre, you allow the SPR to stay around 11 going to the flop. This is the sort of SPR which tends to favor stacking off with solid draws, top 2 pair hands, sets, and any flush or straight.

    On the flop, your draw is decent, but versus the TAG's range it is hardly a world beater. You could have only 3 outs besides your nut flush draw, but just as easily you could have NO additional outs beyond your 9 (if TAG holds AT/TT). Also, your 2nd pair outs are further discounted because there is a chance hitting your 7 may be making a better hand for someone else. All in all, I think I'd look at my dirty outs as worth no more than around an out and a half, thus giving you the equivalent of 10.5 "clean" outs.

    10.5 clean outs gives you about 45% equity versus the TAG (assuming you see turn and river) who may be playing a range of A8+ (s or os), TT. That is probably enough to check/call the flop to peel (as you did), but it is pretty risky versus a TAG range to bet up the pot now.

    On the turn though, when you do hit your 2nd pair, I think you COULD have considered a donk lead here, or even a C/R. The risk exists that your improvement is not enough though, and on the money still behind, a donk lead or a C/R means a TAG could test you strongly with a hand like AK/AQ, so it is not something I think you MUST do. Afterall, if you bink the flush on the river, you can probably donk lead then, and the TAG who fired 2 bullets at you probably would have to consider a crying call of around a half pot bet anyway.

    When the river blanks you are pretty much in the same position vis a vis a donk lead or a C/R shot. unsure of whether or not your 2 pair is good, there is definately no need to try for more value if the villain seems the type to bet an amount on the river you can call.

    So Dedeyez, in my opinion you took a pretty passive "careful" line here, but that is entirely reasonable vs a TAG in this spot. If you had held top 2, I think your line may have been TOO passive, but with a weaker 2 pair, I think it is just. fine.

    Well played hand sir, I hope for your sake he rolled over AJ and you took it down!

    Hope it helps.

    Last edited by JDean; Fri Feb 17, 2012, 10:00 PM.
    Double Bracelet Winner



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