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Unlucky with the ladies lately

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  • Unlucky with the ladies lately

    I've had about a week that everything fell against me (it seemed), my pp's got destroyed almost every time I went all in with them pre-flop, ok one time a QQ against a KK... ah well, but lots of the QQ against Ax, or KK against Q8, but the ladies gave me the most grieve, especially in cash games (lost about $20 on QQ preflop alone). Then this hand came along. Opp was very, very tight during his stay at the table (70 odd hands), VPIP of 11, and PFR of 7, so I gave him credit for a good hand. Flop was not very nice for me, and when he called my bet, I was almost certain he had a K... I may have given away the hand by not betting the turn (but my experiences with the ladies made cautious), cause when he did bet, I had to let him go. Did I let my previous experiences with the ladies get the better of me? Or did I make a mistake even before the turn? Opp told me later he had A6... don't know if that's true though, he might have said it to wind me up.

  • #2
    Hi Bibliofagios!

    If you are un-sure in this spot, I think your fold is fine.

    First, you are playing against a tight player. While an 11/7 VPiP/PFR is likely to widen in his position, I am not really certain it would widen as far as A6 if he calls your 3bet pre flop. Pre flop you created an SPR of just over 4 when the Villain called, so I'm really not certain a tight player would risk staying in that pot with an A with a weak kicker when it means you are quite likely to play strongly post flop.

    When you see a KK6 flop, that really does not bode well for your QQ. Since the board paired the Ks though, I'd be perfectly fine with C-Betting Qs here, as 2 Ks makes it slightly less likely the villain has one. You bet a very standard amount (just under half pot), and the tight villain flats that.

    What are the types of hands he may call your 3bet pre AND flat your bet on the flop?

    I'd think AK certainly; he'd probably not want to tip you off too early that he hit trips.
    77 to JJ are also quite possible. AA is too.
    2 "good" hearts could be in this range as well.
    (all the above are conceivably in an 11% range)

    Of all these hands, you are ahead of most of them, but with almost $2 of your stack invested already, and the pot grown to nearly $4, chances are the flop probably marked the last chance you had to keep the pot under any sort of control. Also, if you down grade some of the weaker pp in this range as those he may be reluctant to peel the turn card on, your chances of being behind go up too. As such I really do not mind your check on the turn were it my choice to make either.

    When the villain bets $1.90 though, you are put to a pretty tough decision. If you call that amount, you are probably not able to fold your QQ any more, and the pot will have grown to the point that the villain can easily put you all in on the river; that could mean maximum loss. so this is the decision point; the turn bet.

    I do think your decision to fold is a little cautious, but with AK a pretty decent part of the Villain's range, and with your investment still quite small really ($1.90 of an $8 stack), I can see it as understandable on this board texture. If, however, you let your past results color your judgement with QQ, I would call your choice a "mistake". That would be allowing yourself to fear monsters under the bed which may not be there, and playing in that sort of fear will tend to cost you quite a bit of money if you allow it to cloud you decisions.

    But folding for the RIGHT reasons here: you are versus a tight player, your investment is small, and continuing will put you at risk of your whole stack...THAT is perfectly fine in my opinion.

    Hope it helps.

    Last edited by JDean; Sun Jan 29, 2012, 09:42 AM.
    Double Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Hi biblio,

      Don't let his chat get the better of you... super tight players may not even raise A6 from a steal position, and they're certainly not calling this large a 3b with it. His range was likely some AA combos (sometimes he would 4 bet these pre, sometimes flat), AK, JJ-QQ. Against that range you're losing more often than winning, so I think a check-fold is ok. If the opponent were any other category type than nit, I wouldn't be so quick to fold, but as described I think it's ok.

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      • #4
        Hey guys,

        Thanks for your insights on this

        The main reason I check-folded the turn was his tight image. I think if he had been playing not that tight, even with my past experiences, I would have been tempted to play for my stack there. However, as things were, I thought the chances he had something like AK were too big to continue to put money in the pot.

        I'm not really someone who get's wound up by table chat, luckily. If he had A6, so be it and then he played it well, and made excellent use of his table image. Just wondered if I could have done anything different




        • #5
          Against a nit with those stats and out of position with a pair board it is a difficult spot, maybe by keeping the pot small might be a good idea or else you will need to fold it as most of the time he might have a K or AK or AA most probably.



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